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Primeira Liga

Referee: Joao Mendes

Nacional

T T U T T

1–1

Full-time

Arouca

S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 28%

17%

39%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

44%

39%

Both score Ø 39%

39%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

57% Possession 43%

24 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 2

8 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 7

4 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Nacional 18. · Arouca 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	18	14	3	1	+30	45
2	Porto	18	12	5	1	+26	41
3	Sp Braga	18	11	3	4	+15	36
4	Sp Lisbon	18	10	5	3	+13	35
5	Guimaraes	18	10	4	4	+9	34
6	Chaves	19	6	9	4	+2	27
7	Maritimo	18	8	3	7	+1	27
8	Vitoria Setubal	18	7	4	7	+1	25
9	Boavista	19	6	6	7	-1	24
10	Rio Ave	18	7	3	8	-3	24
11	Arouca	18	7	2	9	-5	23
12	Belenenses	19	6	5	8	-5	23
13	Feirense	18	5	3	10	-18	18
14	Pacos Ferreira	18	4	5	9	-11	17
15	Moreirense	18	5	2	11	-12	17
16	Estoril	18	4	3	11	-10	15
17	Tondela	19	3	4	12	-18	13
18	Nacional	18	3	3	12	-14	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	10	9	1	0	+17	28
2	Sp Braga	10	8	1	1	+15	25
3	Benfica	9	7	2	0	+19	23
4	Sp Lisbon	9	7	1	1	+13	22
5	Maritimo	9	5	2	2	+5	17
6	Chaves	10	4	5	1	+4	17
7	Vitoria Setubal	9	5	1	3	+5	16
8	Pacos Ferreira	9	3	4	2	+0	13
9	Rio Ave	9	4	1	4	-1	13
10	Arouca	10	4	1	5	-1	13
11	Guimaraes	8	3	3	2	+2	12
12	Belenenses	9	3	3	3	-1	12
13	Boavista	9	3	2	4	+1	11
14	Tondela	9	3	2	4	-1	11
15	Feirense	10	3	2	5	-9	11
16	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	-3	8
17	Nacional	9	2	2	5	-7	8
18	Estoril	8	2	1	5	-4	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	9	7	1	1	+11	22
2	Guimaraes	10	7	1	2	+7	22
3	Porto	8	3	4	1	+9	13
4	Sp Lisbon	9	3	4	2	+0	13
5	Boavista	10	3	4	3	-2	13
6	Sp Braga	8	3	2	3	+0	11
7	Rio Ave	9	3	2	4	-2	11
8	Belenenses	10	3	2	5	-4	11
9	Chaves	9	2	4	3	-2	10
10	Arouca	8	3	1	4	-4	10
11	Maritimo	9	3	1	5	-4	10
12	Vitoria Setubal	9	2	3	4	-4	9
13	Moreirense	10	3	0	7	-9	9
14	Estoril	10	2	2	6	-6	8
15	Feirense	8	2	1	5	-9	7
16	Nacional	9	1	1	7	-7	4
17	Pacos Ferreira	9	1	1	7	-11	4
18	Tondela	10	0	2	8	-17	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.