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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo

Sp Lisbon

T S S U U

4–2

Full-time

Pacos Ferreira

S T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Pacos Ferreira

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

1,3

0,3

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 39%

56%

22%

Points per game

1,9

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

56%

44%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,7

0,9

Conceded

1,0

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

58% Possession 42%

12 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 0

5 Corners 7

3 Offside 1

21 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 4. · Pacos Ferreira 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	18	14	3	1	+30	45
2	Porto	19	13	5	1	+27	44
3	Sp Braga	18	11	3	4	+15	36
4	Sp Lisbon	18	10	5	3	+13	35
5	Guimaraes	19	10	5	4	+9	35
6	Maritimo	19	8	4	7	+1	28
7	Chaves	19	6	9	4	+2	27
8	Vitoria Setubal	18	7	4	7	+1	25
9	Boavista	19	6	6	7	-1	24
10	Rio Ave	18	7	3	8	-3	24
11	Arouca	19	7	3	9	-5	24
12	Belenenses	19	6	5	8	-5	23
13	Feirense	18	5	3	10	-18	18
14	Pacos Ferreira	18	4	5	9	-11	17
15	Moreirense	18	5	2	11	-12	17
16	Estoril	19	4	3	12	-11	15
17	Nacional	19	3	4	12	-14	13
18	Tondela	19	3	4	12	-18	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	10	9	1	0	+17	28
2	Sp Braga	10	8	1	1	+15	25
3	Benfica	9	7	2	0	+19	23
4	Sp Lisbon	9	7	1	1	+13	22
5	Maritimo	9	5	2	2	+5	17
6	Chaves	10	4	5	1	+4	17
7	Vitoria Setubal	9	5	1	3	+5	16
8	Guimaraes	9	3	4	2	+2	13
9	Pacos Ferreira	9	3	4	2	+0	13
10	Rio Ave	9	4	1	4	-1	13
11	Arouca	10	4	1	5	-1	13
12	Belenenses	9	3	3	3	-1	12
13	Boavista	9	3	2	4	+1	11
14	Tondela	9	3	2	4	-1	11
15	Feirense	10	3	2	5	-9	11
16	Nacional	10	2	3	5	-7	9
17	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	-3	8
18	Estoril	9	2	1	6	-5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	9	7	1	1	+11	22
2	Guimaraes	10	7	1	2	+7	22
3	Porto	9	4	4	1	+10	16
4	Sp Lisbon	9	3	4	2	+0	13
5	Boavista	10	3	4	3	-2	13
6	Sp Braga	8	3	2	3	+0	11
7	Rio Ave	9	3	2	4	-2	11
8	Arouca	9	3	2	4	-4	11
9	Belenenses	10	3	2	5	-4	11
10	Maritimo	10	3	2	5	-4	11
11	Chaves	9	2	4	3	-2	10
12	Vitoria Setubal	9	2	3	4	-4	9
13	Moreirense	10	3	0	7	-9	9
14	Estoril	10	2	2	6	-6	8
15	Feirense	8	2	1	5	-9	7
16	Nacional	9	1	1	7	-7	4
17	Pacos Ferreira	9	1	1	7	-11	4
18	Tondela	10	0	2	8	-17	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.