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Ligue 1

Referee: Karim Abed

Caen

T T S T T

3–2

Full-time

Nantes

S T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Caen Nantes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,0

1,5

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

1,3

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,5

This season — Ligue 1 · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 42%

35%

48%

Points per game

1,2

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 29%

22%

35%

Both score Ø 31%

22%

39%

Average goals

1,8

1,9

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

1,1

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

50% Possession 50%

16 Shots 14

7 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 4

0 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Caen 13. · Nantes 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	24	20	2	2	+58	62
2	Marseille	24	15	6	3	+26	51
3	Lyon	23	14	6	3	+27	48
4	Monaco	23	14	5	4	+29	47
5	Nantes	23	11	4	8	+1	37
6	Montpellier	24	8	10	6	+2	34
7	Nice	24	10	4	10	-5	34
8	Bordeaux	24	9	5	10	-3	32
9	Guingamp	24	9	5	10	-7	32
10	Rennes	24	9	4	11	-5	31
11	St Etienne	24	8	5	11	-14	29
12	Dijon	23	8	4	11	-13	28
13	Caen	23	8	3	12	-11	27
14	Strasbourg	24	7	6	11	-13	27
15	Toulouse	24	7	5	12	-10	26
16	Angers	24	5	10	9	-7	25
17	Amiens	24	7	4	13	-7	25
18	Lille	24	7	4	13	-16	25
19	Troyes	23	7	3	13	-10	24
20	Metz	24	5	3	16	-22	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	12	0	0	+39	36
2	Monaco	12	9	2	1	+21	29
3	Marseille	12	8	3	1	+19	27
4	Dijon	12	7	2	3	+6	23
5	Lyon	11	6	4	1	+10	22
6	Nice	13	7	1	5	+2	22
7	Montpellier	13	5	5	3	+4	20
8	Guingamp	12	5	4	3	+2	19
9	Nantes	11	6	1	4	+2	19
10	St Etienne	12	5	4	3	-1	19
11	Toulouse	11	5	3	3	+3	18
12	Strasbourg	12	5	3	4	+1	18
13	Amiens	12	5	2	5	+2	17
14	Bordeaux	11	5	2	4	+1	17
15	Troyes	12	5	2	5	+0	17
16	Caen	12	5	2	5	-2	17
17	Rennes	12	5	1	6	-4	16
18	Lille	12	4	3	5	-4	15
19	Angers	11	3	4	4	-4	13
20	Metz	12	3	1	8	-10	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	8	2	2	+19	26
2	Lyon	12	8	2	2	+17	26
3	Marseille	12	7	3	2	+7	24
4	Monaco	11	5	3	3	+8	18
5	Nantes	12	5	3	4	-1	18
6	Rennes	12	4	3	5	-1	15
7	Bordeaux	13	4	3	6	-4	15
8	Montpellier	11	3	5	3	-2	14
9	Guingamp	12	4	1	7	-9	13
10	Angers	13	2	6	5	-3	12
11	Nice	11	3	3	5	-7	12
12	Caen	11	3	1	7	-9	10
13	Lille	12	3	1	8	-12	10
14	St Etienne	12	3	1	8	-13	10
15	Strasbourg	12	2	3	7	-14	9
16	Amiens	12	2	2	8	-9	8
17	Metz	12	2	2	8	-12	8
18	Toulouse	13	2	2	9	-13	8
19	Troyes	11	2	1	8	-10	7
20	Dijon	11	1	2	8	-19	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.