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Ligue 1

Referee: Johan Hamel

Caen

U T T U T

0–1

Full-time

Lille

S S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Caen Lille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,7

2,7

Scored

0,5

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,0

This season — Ligue 1 · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 32%

37%

26%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

21%

58%

Both score Ø 27%

21%

32%

Average goals

1,7

2,5

Scored

0,6

0,9

Conceded

1,1

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

40% Possession 60%

15 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 0

4 Goalkeeper saves 6

5 Corners 3

15 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Caen 12. · Lille 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	19	16	2	1	+43	50
2	Monaco	19	13	2	4	+27	41
3	Lyon	19	12	5	2	+26	41
4	Marseille	20	12	5	3	+19	41
5	Nantes	19	10	3	6	+0	33
6	Guingamp	20	8	5	7	-1	29
7	Nice	19	8	3	8	-5	27
8	Montpellier	19	6	8	5	+4	26
9	Rennes	20	7	4	9	-5	25
10	Dijon	19	7	3	9	-5	24
11	Strasbourg	20	6	6	8	-9	24
12	Caen	19	7	3	9	-9	24
13	Amiens	19	6	3	10	-5	21
14	Troyes	19	6	3	10	-7	21
15	Bordeaux	19	5	5	9	-7	20
16	St Etienne	19	5	5	9	-15	20
17	Toulouse	19	5	4	10	-9	19
18	Lille	19	5	4	10	-13	19
19	Angers	19	3	9	7	-8	18
20	Metz	19	3	2	14	-21	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	10	10	0	0	+27	30
2	Monaco	10	8	1	1	+19	25
3	Marseille	9	6	2	1	+14	20
4	Guingamp	10	5	4	1	+7	19
5	Dijon	10	6	1	3	+5	19
6	Nantes	9	6	1	2	+4	19
7	Lyon	9	5	3	1	+9	18
8	Caen	10	5	2	3	+1	17
9	Nice	10	5	1	4	+1	16
10	Strasbourg	10	4	3	3	+2	15
11	Toulouse	9	4	2	3	+2	14
12	Bordeaux	9	4	2	3	+1	14
13	Troyes	10	4	2	4	+0	14
14	Amiens	9	4	1	4	+2	13
15	Montpellier	10	3	4	3	+2	13
16	St Etienne	10	3	4	3	-4	13
17	Rennes	10	4	1	5	-4	13
18	Lille	9	3	3	3	-1	12
19	Angers	9	1	4	4	-7	7
20	Metz	10	1	1	8	-14	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lyon	10	7	2	1	+17	23
2	Marseille	11	6	3	2	+5	21
3	Paris SG	9	6	2	1	+16	20
4	Monaco	9	5	1	3	+8	16
5	Nantes	10	4	2	4	-4	14
6	Montpellier	9	3	4	2	+2	13
7	Rennes	10	3	3	4	-1	12
8	Angers	10	2	5	3	-1	11
9	Nice	9	3	2	4	-6	11
10	Guingamp	10	3	1	6	-8	10
11	Strasbourg	10	2	3	5	-11	9
12	Amiens	10	2	2	6	-7	8
13	Troyes	9	2	1	6	-7	7
14	Metz	9	2	1	6	-7	7
15	Caen	9	2	1	6	-10	7
16	St Etienne	9	2	1	6	-11	7
17	Lille	10	2	1	7	-12	7
18	Bordeaux	10	1	3	6	-8	6
19	Dijon	9	1	2	6	-10	5
20	Toulouse	10	1	2	7	-11	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.