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Eredivisie

Referee: Ed Peter Janssen

Ajax

S S S S U

3–1

Full-time

NAC Breda

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax NAC Breda

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

2,2

0,8

Conceded

0,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,3

This season — Eredivisie · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 45%

70%

20%

Points per game

2,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

80%

55%

Both score Ø 58%

60%

55%

Average goals

3,7

2,9

Scored

2,8

1,0

Conceded

0,9

1,9

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

62% Possession 38%

32 Shots 8

8 Shots on target 3

10 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

14 Corners 0

1 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Ajax 2. · NAC Breda 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	21	18	1	2	+35	55
2	Ajax	20	14	3	3	+39	45
3	AZ Alkmaar	21	13	4	4	+17	43
4	Feyenoord	21	10	6	5	+20	36
5	Zwolle	21	10	6	5	+1	36
6	Vitesse	19	8	6	5	+10	30
7	Heerenveen	20	8	6	6	-1	30
8	VVV Venlo	21	7	8	6	-2	29
9	Den Haag	20	8	4	8	-3	28
10	Utrecht	19	7	7	5	-3	28
11	Excelsior	21	7	4	10	-6	25
12	Heracles	21	6	6	9	-12	24
13	Groningen	21	5	7	9	-2	22
14	Willem II	21	4	5	12	-16	17
15	Twente	21	4	4	13	-12	16
16	NAC Breda	20	4	4	12	-17	16
17	Roda	21	4	4	13	-22	16
18	Sparta Rotterdam	21	3	5	13	-26	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	10	10	0	0	+21	30
2	Ajax	10	8	0	2	+20	24
3	AZ Alkmaar	11	7	1	3	+9	22
4	Heracles	11	6	3	2	+5	21
5	Zwolle	10	6	2	2	+7	20
6	Feyenoord	10	5	3	2	+8	18
7	Groningen	11	4	5	2	+5	17
8	Den Haag	11	4	3	4	+1	15
9	Utrecht	9	3	5	1	+0	14
10	Heerenveen	10	4	2	4	-5	14
11	Roda	10	3	3	4	-3	12
12	VVV Venlo	11	3	3	5	-4	12
13	Twente	10	3	2	5	-2	11
14	Sparta Rotterdam	11	3	2	6	-11	11
15	Vitesse	8	2	4	2	+2	10
16	NAC Breda	10	3	1	6	-11	10
17	Willem II	11	2	3	6	-4	9
18	Excelsior	11	2	3	6	-6	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	11	8	1	2	+14	25
2	Ajax	10	6	3	1	+19	21
3	AZ Alkmaar	10	6	3	1	+8	21
4	Vitesse	11	6	2	3	+8	20
5	Feyenoord	11	5	3	3	+12	18
6	VVV Venlo	10	4	5	1	+2	17
7	Heerenveen	10	4	4	2	+4	16
8	Excelsior	10	5	1	4	+0	16
9	Zwolle	11	4	4	3	-6	16
10	Utrecht	10	4	2	4	-3	14
11	Den Haag	9	4	1	4	-4	13
12	Willem II	10	2	2	6	-12	8
13	NAC Breda	10	1	3	6	-6	6
14	Groningen	10	1	2	7	-7	5
15	Twente	11	1	2	8	-10	5
16	Roda	11	1	1	9	-19	4
17	Sparta Rotterdam	10	0	3	7	-15	3
18	Heracles	10	0	3	7	-17	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.