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Ligue 1

Referee: T Léonard

Lyon

S S T S T

5–1

Full-time

Toulouse

U T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lyon Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,2

1,8

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 37%

50%

23%

Points per game

1,8

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

46%

50%

Both score Ø 56%

50%

62%

Average goals

2,7

2,4

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

62% Possession 38%

22 Shots 5

10 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 1

4 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Lyon 3. · Toulouse 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	26	23	2	1	+64	71
2	Lille	27	16	6	5	+21	54
3	Lyon	26	13	7	6	+10	46
4	St Etienne	26	12	7	7	+5	43
5	Reims	27	10	12	5	+3	42
6	Marseille	26	12	5	9	+6	41
7	Nice	27	11	7	9	-7	40
8	Montpellier	26	9	11	6	+6	38
9	Strasbourg	27	9	10	8	+10	37
10	Rennes	26	10	7	9	+1	37
11	Nimes	26	10	6	10	-1	36
12	Angers	27	8	10	9	+0	34
13	Bordeaux	26	8	8	10	-2	32
14	Nantes	27	8	7	12	-3	31
15	Toulouse	26	6	10	10	-12	28
16	Monaco	27	6	8	13	-15	26
17	Amiens	27	7	4	16	-20	25
18	Caen	27	3	11	13	-14	20
19	Dijon	26	5	5	16	-20	20
20	Guingamp	27	4	7	16	-32	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	14	0	0	+45	42
2	Lille	14	9	4	1	+17	31
3	St Etienne	13	9	2	2	+13	29
4	Lyon	13	8	3	2	+11	27
5	Marseille	12	7	3	2	+13	24
6	Reims	14	6	6	2	+5	24
7	Bordeaux	13	6	5	2	+5	23
8	Nice	13	7	2	4	+0	23
9	Rennes	13	6	4	3	+6	22
10	Montpellier	13	5	5	3	+7	20
11	Strasbourg	13	5	5	3	+6	20
12	Angers	14	5	5	4	+3	20
13	Nantes	13	5	4	4	+7	19
14	Nimes	13	5	4	4	+5	19
15	Amiens	13	5	1	7	-4	16
16	Toulouse	13	2	7	4	-4	13
17	Monaco	14	3	4	7	-10	13
18	Caen	14	2	5	7	-6	11
19	Dijon	12	3	2	7	-9	11
20	Guingamp	14	2	4	8	-10	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	9	2	1	+19	29
2	Lille	13	7	2	4	+4	23
3	Lyon	13	5	4	4	-1	19
4	Montpellier	13	4	6	3	-1	18
5	Reims	13	4	6	3	-2	18
6	Strasbourg	14	4	5	5	+4	17
7	Nimes	13	5	2	6	-6	17
8	Marseille	14	5	2	7	-7	17
9	Nice	14	4	5	5	-7	17
10	Rennes	13	4	3	6	-5	15
11	Toulouse	13	4	3	6	-8	15
12	Angers	13	3	5	5	-3	14
13	St Etienne	13	3	5	5	-8	14
14	Monaco	13	3	4	6	-5	13
15	Nantes	14	3	3	8	-10	12
16	Bordeaux	13	2	3	8	-7	9
17	Caen	13	1	6	6	-8	9
18	Dijon	14	2	3	9	-11	9
19	Amiens	14	2	3	9	-16	9
20	Guingamp	13	2	3	8	-22	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.