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Eredivisie

Referee: Edwin Van de Graaf

Excelsior

T S T T T

1–1

Full-time

Heerenveen

T U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior Heerenveen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

This season — Eredivisie · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 29%

20%

37%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

57%

60%

Both score Ø 55%

47%

63%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

1,0

1,4

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

33% Possession 67%

9 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 4

7 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 16. · Heerenveen 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	31	23	6	2	+54	75
2	PSV Eindhoven	31	23	6	2	+48	75
3	Feyenoord	31	17	5	9	+20	56
4	AZ Alkmaar	31	15	5	11	+11	50
5	Nijmegen	31	13	7	11	-1	46
6	Vitesse	31	12	9	10	+21	45
7	Heracles	28	13	6	9	+0	45
8	Zwolle	29	13	5	11	+4	44
9	Den Haag	31	10	11	10	+0	41
10	Groningen	30	11	8	11	-9	41
11	Utrecht	27	11	7	9	+7	40
12	Heerenveen	30	11	7	12	-12	40
13	Twente	31	11	6	14	-13	39
14	Roda	31	7	10	14	-20	31
15	Willem II	31	5	10	16	-18	25
16	Excelsior	30	6	7	17	-26	25
17	De Graafschap	31	4	7	20	-26	19
18	Cambuur	31	3	8	20	-40	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	16	12	3	1	+33	39
2	PSV Eindhoven	15	11	3	1	+19	36
3	Nijmegen	16	11	2	3	+9	35
4	Feyenoord	16	10	3	3	+18	33
5	AZ Alkmaar	16	9	2	5	+11	29
6	Zwolle	14	9	2	3	+9	29
7	Groningen	15	8	3	4	+4	27
8	Twente	15	8	2	5	+4	26
9	Heracles	13	8	2	3	+4	26
10	Vitesse	16	7	4	5	+14	25
11	Utrecht	13	7	4	2	+7	25
12	Heerenveen	15	6	4	5	-2	22
13	Den Haag	15	4	7	4	-1	19
14	Willem II	16	3	6	7	-6	15
15	Roda	16	3	6	7	-9	15
16	Excelsior	15	4	3	8	-10	15
17	De Graafschap	16	3	5	8	-6	14
18	Cambuur	15	2	4	9	-18	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	16	12	3	1	+29	39
2	Ajax	15	11	3	1	+21	36
3	Feyenoord	15	7	2	6	+2	23
4	Den Haag	16	6	4	6	+1	22
5	AZ Alkmaar	15	6	3	6	+0	21
6	Vitesse	15	5	5	5	+7	20
7	Heracles	15	5	4	6	-4	19
8	Heerenveen	15	5	3	7	-10	18
9	Roda	15	4	4	7	-11	16
10	Utrecht	14	4	3	7	+0	15
11	Zwolle	15	4	3	8	-5	15
12	Groningen	15	3	5	7	-13	14
13	Twente	16	3	4	9	-17	13
14	Nijmegen	15	2	5	8	-10	11
15	Willem II	15	2	4	9	-12	10
16	Excelsior	15	2	4	9	-16	10
17	Cambuur	16	1	4	11	-22	7
18	De Graafschap	15	1	2	12	-20	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.