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Eredivisie

Referee: Dennis Higler

AZ Alkmaar

U T T S S

4–1

Full-time

De Graafschap

T U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar De Graafschap

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

4,5

3,2

Scored

2,5

1,7

Conceded

2,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,2

This season — Eredivisie · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 33%

50%

16%

Points per game

1,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

69%

66%

Both score Ø 63%

63%

Average goals

3,6

3,1

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

1,6

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

58% Possession 42%

19 Shots 8

9 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 2

5 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 4. · De Graafschap 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	32	24	6	2	+56	78
2	PSV Eindhoven	32	24	6	2	+50	78
3	Feyenoord	32	17	6	9	+20	57
4	AZ Alkmaar	32	16	5	11	+12	53
5	Zwolle	30	14	5	11	+6	47
6	Heracles	29	13	7	9	+0	46
7	Nijmegen	32	13	7	12	-3	46
8	Vitesse	32	12	9	11	+19	45
9	Groningen	31	12	8	11	-8	44
10	Twente	32	12	6	14	-11	42
11	Den Haag	32	10	11	11	-1	41
12	Heerenveen	32	11	8	13	-14	41
13	Utrecht	28	11	7	10	+5	40
14	Roda	32	7	10	15	-21	31
15	Willem II	32	5	11	16	-18	26
16	Excelsior	32	6	8	18	-28	26
17	De Graafschap	32	5	7	20	-24	22
18	Cambuur	32	3	9	20	-40	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	16	12	3	1	+33	39
2	PSV Eindhoven	16	12	3	1	+21	39
3	Nijmegen	16	11	2	3	+9	35
4	Feyenoord	16	10	3	3	+18	33
5	Zwolle	15	10	2	3	+11	32
6	Groningen	16	9	3	4	+5	30
7	AZ Alkmaar	16	9	2	5	+11	29
8	Twente	16	9	2	5	+6	29
9	Heracles	14	8	3	3	+4	27
10	Vitesse	16	7	4	5	+14	25
11	Utrecht	14	7	4	3	+5	25
12	Heerenveen	16	6	4	6	-4	22
13	Den Haag	16	4	7	5	-2	19
14	Excelsior	16	4	4	8	-10	16
15	Willem II	16	3	6	7	-6	15
16	Roda	16	3	6	7	-9	15
17	De Graafschap	16	3	5	8	-6	14
18	Cambuur	16	2	5	9	-18	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	16	12	3	1	+29	39
2	Ajax	16	12	3	1	+23	39
3	Feyenoord	16	7	3	6	+2	24
4	AZ Alkmaar	16	7	3	6	+1	24
5	Den Haag	16	6	4	6	+1	22
6	Vitesse	16	5	5	6	+5	20
7	Heracles	15	5	4	6	-4	19
8	Heerenveen	16	5	4	7	-10	19
9	Roda	16	4	4	8	-12	16
10	Utrecht	14	4	3	7	+0	15
11	Zwolle	15	4	3	8	-5	15
12	Groningen	15	3	5	7	-13	14
13	Twente	16	3	4	9	-17	13
14	Willem II	16	2	5	9	-12	11
15	Nijmegen	16	2	5	9	-12	11
16	Excelsior	16	2	4	10	-18	10
17	De Graafschap	16	2	2	12	-18	8
18	Cambuur	16	1	4	11	-22	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.