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Eredivisie

Referee: Danny Desmond Makkelie

AZ Alkmaar

S S S S U

1–2

Full-time

Ajax

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Ajax

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

33%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,8

5,0

Scored

2,3

3,8

Conceded

0,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+2,7

This season — Eredivisie · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 69%

69%

Points per game

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

50%

88%

Both score Ø 54%

44%

63%

Average goals

2,9

4,0

Scored

1,9

3,1

Conceded

1,0

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+2,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

46% Possession 54%

12 Shots 20

4 Shots on target 9

5 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 4

6 Offside 3

18 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 3. · Ajax 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	17	14	1	2	+27	43
2	Ajax	16	11	2	3	+34	35
3	AZ Alkmaar	16	11	2	3	+14	35
4	Zwolle	17	9	6	2	+9	33
5	Feyenoord	16	8	5	3	+17	29
6	Heerenveen	16	6	5	5	-1	23
7	Utrecht	13	7	2	4	-1	23
8	Den Haag	16	7	2	7	-5	23
9	Heracles	16	6	3	7	-9	21
10	Vitesse	14	5	5	4	+7	20
11	VVV Venlo	17	4	7	6	-6	19
12	Groningen	16	4	5	7	-2	17
13	Excelsior	16	5	2	9	-8	17
14	Willem II	17	4	4	9	-11	16
15	Twente	17	4	2	11	-9	14
16	NAC Breda	17	3	4	10	-17	13
17	Roda	17	3	2	12	-19	11
18	Sparta Rotterdam	16	2	5	9	-20	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	8	8	0	0	+16	24
2	Heracles	9	6	2	1	+6	20
3	Ajax	8	6	0	2	+16	18
4	AZ Alkmaar	8	6	0	2	+8	18
5	Zwolle	8	5	2	1	+7	17
6	Groningen	9	3	4	2	+1	13
7	Feyenoord	8	3	3	2	+2	12
8	Twente	9	3	2	4	+0	11
9	Den Haag	9	3	2	4	-3	11
10	Utrecht	5	3	1	1	+0	10
11	Willem II	9	2	2	5	-2	8
12	Roda	8	2	2	4	-4	8
13	Heerenveen	8	2	2	4	-7	8
14	Sparta Rotterdam	8	2	2	4	-10	8
15	NAC Breda	8	2	1	5	-12	7
16	Vitesse	6	1	3	2	+0	6
17	VVV Venlo	9	1	3	5	-7	6
18	Excelsior	8	1	1	6	-8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	9	6	1	2	+11	19
2	Ajax	8	5	2	1	+18	17
3	Feyenoord	8	5	2	1	+15	17
4	AZ Alkmaar	8	5	2	1	+6	17
5	Zwolle	9	4	4	1	+2	16
6	Heerenveen	8	4	3	1	+6	15
7	Vitesse	8	4	2	2	+7	14
8	VVV Venlo	8	3	4	1	+1	13
9	Excelsior	8	4	1	3	+0	13
10	Utrecht	8	4	1	3	-1	13
11	Den Haag	7	4	0	3	-2	12
12	Willem II	8	2	2	4	-9	8
13	NAC Breda	9	1	3	5	-5	6
14	Groningen	7	1	1	5	-3	4
15	Twente	8	1	0	7	-9	3
16	Sparta Rotterdam	8	0	3	5	-10	3
17	Roda	9	1	0	8	-15	3
18	Heracles	7	0	1	6	-15	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.