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Eredivisie

Referee: Dennis Higler

Ajax

S U S U S

4–1

Full-time

AZ Alkmaar

U U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax AZ Alkmaar

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,7

3,3

Scored

2,0

1,8

Conceded

0,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,3

This season — Eredivisie · 28/25 matches

Win Ø 54%

71%

36%

Points per game

2,4

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

46%

56%

Both score Ø 59%

46%

72%

Average goals

2,7

3,3

Scored

2,1

1,8

Conceded

0,6

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,4

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

63% Possession 37%

20 Shots 10

9 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 0

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 2

5 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 2. · AZ Alkmaar 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	28	22	3	3	+50	69
2	Ajax	28	20	6	2	+40	66
3	PSV Eindhoven	28	19	7	2	+36	64
4	Utrecht	26	13	7	6	+12	46
5	Vitesse	29	13	6	10	+10	45
6	Twente	28	11	8	9	+2	41
7	Heerenveen	27	11	6	10	+10	39
8	AZ Alkmaar	25	9	11	5	+8	38
9	Heracles	29	9	7	13	-7	34
10	Willem II	28	8	9	11	-7	33
11	Zwolle	28	8	7	13	-20	31
12	Groningen	27	6	11	10	-4	29
13	Sparta Rotterdam	29	7	7	15	-18	28
14	Nijmegen	29	7	7	15	-22	28
15	Excelsior	29	5	10	14	-20	25
16	Den Haag	28	7	4	17	-24	25
17	Go Ahead Eagles	28	6	5	17	-21	23
18	Roda	28	4	11	13	-25	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	14	12	2	0	+33	38
2	Ajax	14	11	2	1	+25	35
3	PSV Eindhoven	14	10	3	1	+17	33
4	Heerenveen	14	7	4	3	+11	25
5	Heracles	15	7	3	5	+8	24
6	Twente	14	7	3	4	+5	24
7	Vitesse	14	7	2	5	+7	23
8	Utrecht	12	6	3	3	+6	21
9	AZ Alkmaar	13	4	7	2	+6	19
10	Sparta Rotterdam	14	5	4	5	+1	19
11	Nijmegen	14	5	4	5	-1	19
12	Excelsior	15	4	5	6	-2	17
13	Den Haag	14	5	2	7	-3	17
14	Willem II	14	4	5	5	-4	17
15	Groningen	14	3	7	4	-5	16
16	Zwolle	14	4	4	6	-9	16
17	Roda	14	3	5	6	-5	14
18	Go Ahead Eagles	14	4	1	9	-9	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	14	9	4	1	+19	31
2	Feyenoord	14	10	1	3	+17	31
3	Ajax	14	9	4	1	+15	31
4	Utrecht	14	7	4	3	+6	25
5	Vitesse	15	6	4	5	+3	22
6	AZ Alkmaar	12	5	4	3	+2	19
7	Twente	14	4	5	5	-3	17
8	Willem II	14	4	4	6	-3	16
9	Zwolle	14	4	3	7	-11	15
10	Heerenveen	13	4	2	7	-1	14
11	Groningen	13	3	4	6	+1	13
12	Go Ahead Eagles	14	2	4	8	-12	10
13	Heracles	14	2	4	8	-15	10
14	Sparta Rotterdam	15	2	3	10	-19	9
15	Roda	14	1	6	7	-20	9
16	Nijmegen	15	2	3	10	-21	9
17	Excelsior	14	1	5	8	-18	8
18	Den Haag	14	2	2	10	-21	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.