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Eredivisie

Referee: Pol van Boekel

Ajax

S S S S S

4–1

Full-time

Utrecht

S S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Utrecht

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 84%

100%

67%

Points per game

3,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

5,2

4,5

Scored

3,8

2,5

Conceded

1,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

+2,5

+0,5

This season — Eredivisie · 32/28 matches

Win Ø 62%

81%

43%

Points per game

2,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

78%

61%

Both score Ø 47%

44%

50%

Average goals

4,4

3,2

Scored

3,5

1,7

Conceded

0,9

1,5

Goal diff per game

+2,5

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

64% Possession 36%

25 Shots 11

12 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 8

5 Corners 4

8 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 1. · Utrecht 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	32	26	2	4	+81	80
2	PSV Eindhoven	32	25	5	2	+71	80
3	Feyenoord	32	19	5	8	+33	62
4	AZ Alkmaar	32	16	7	9	+22	55
5	Heracles	30	15	3	12	+2	48
6	Willem II	32	13	5	14	-9	44
7	Utrecht	28	12	7	9	+5	43
8	Vitesse	28	10	10	8	+8	40
9	Groningen	30	11	6	13	-1	39
10	Den Haag	32	10	9	13	-11	39
11	Heerenveen	32	9	11	12	-8	38
12	Zwolle	32	11	5	16	-11	38
13	VVV Venlo	32	10	8	14	-16	38
14	For Sittard	32	9	7	16	-24	34
15	FC Emmen	32	8	8	16	-33	32
16	De Graafschap	32	8	5	19	-29	29
17	Excelsior	32	7	6	19	-36	27
18	NAC Breda	32	5	7	20	-44	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	16	15	1	0	+49	46
2	Ajax	16	14	2	0	+54	44
3	Feyenoord	16	14	0	2	+29	42
4	AZ Alkmaar	16	10	3	3	+19	33
5	Heracles	15	11	0	4	+15	33
6	Vitesse	14	7	6	1	+10	27
7	For Sittard	16	7	5	4	+7	26
8	Utrecht	14	7	4	3	+10	25
9	Groningen	15	8	1	6	+6	25
10	VVV Venlo	16	7	3	6	+2	24
11	Den Haag	16	6	4	6	-3	22
12	Zwolle	16	6	3	7	+2	21
13	De Graafschap	16	6	3	7	+0	21
14	Willem II	16	6	2	8	-6	20
15	Excelsior	16	5	4	7	-11	19
16	FC Emmen	16	4	5	7	-9	17
17	NAC Breda	16	4	5	7	-12	17
18	Heerenveen	16	3	7	6	-9	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	16	12	0	4	+27	36
2	PSV Eindhoven	16	10	4	2	+22	34
3	Willem II	16	7	3	6	-3	24
4	AZ Alkmaar	16	6	4	6	+3	22
5	Heerenveen	16	6	4	6	+1	22
6	Feyenoord	16	5	5	6	+4	20
7	Utrecht	14	5	3	6	-5	18
8	Den Haag	16	4	5	7	-8	17
9	Zwolle	16	5	2	9	-13	17
10	Heracles	15	4	3	8	-13	15
11	FC Emmen	16	4	3	9	-24	15
12	Groningen	15	3	5	7	-7	14
13	VVV Venlo	16	3	5	8	-18	14
14	Vitesse	14	3	4	7	-2	13
15	Excelsior	16	2	2	12	-25	8
16	De Graafschap	16	2	2	12	-29	8
17	For Sittard	16	2	2	12	-31	8
18	NAC Breda	16	1	2	13	-32	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.