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Eredivisie

Referee: Bas Nijhuis

Ajax

T S S S S

3–2

Full-time

Utrecht

T U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Utrecht

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

2,3

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,8

This season — Eredivisie · 7/5 matches

Win Ø 46%

71%

20%

Points per game

2,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

71%

40%

Both score Ø 69%

57%

80%

Average goals

3,3

3,0

Scored

2,4

1,2

Conceded

0,9

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,6

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

60% Possession 40%

21 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 3

9 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 1

0 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 18

1 Yellow cards 7

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 3. · Utrecht 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	7	7	0	0	+19	21
2	PSV Eindhoven	8	5	2	1	+11	17
3	Ajax	7	5	1	1	+11	16
4	Heerenveen	7	4	2	1	+8	14
5	Vitesse	8	4	1	3	+4	13
6	Twente	7	4	0	3	+2	12
7	AZ Alkmaar	6	3	2	1	+5	11
8	Sparta Rotterdam	7	3	1	3	+0	10
9	Den Haag	8	3	1	4	-4	10
10	Excelsior	8	3	1	4	-4	10
11	Nijmegen	8	2	3	3	-6	9
12	Go Ahead Eagles	8	2	2	4	-4	8
13	Heracles	7	1	3	3	-3	6
14	Groningen	8	1	3	4	-5	6
15	Willem II	7	1	3	3	-6	6
16	Utrecht	5	1	2	2	-3	5
17	Zwolle	8	1	2	5	-13	5
18	Roda	8	0	3	5	-12	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	4	4	0	0	+12	12
2	Twente	4	3	0	1	+5	9
3	AZ Alkmaar	4	2	2	0	+4	8
4	Ajax	4	2	1	1	+4	7
5	Heerenveen	3	2	1	0	+3	7
6	Go Ahead Eagles	4	2	1	1	+2	7
7	Vitesse	4	2	1	1	+2	7
8	Excelsior	4	2	0	2	+1	6
9	Sparta Rotterdam	3	2	0	1	+1	6
10	Nijmegen	4	1	2	1	-3	5
11	Den Haag	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	PSV Eindhoven	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Zwolle	5	1	1	3	-8	4
14	Heracles	3	1	0	2	-1	3
15	Utrecht	3	1	0	2	-3	3
16	Willem II	3	0	2	1	-3	2
17	Groningen	4	0	2	2	-6	2
18	Roda	4	0	1	3	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	4	1	0	+11	13
2	Ajax	3	3	0	0	+7	9
3	Feyenoord	3	3	0	0	+7	9
4	Heerenveen	4	2	1	1	+5	7
5	Vitesse	4	2	0	2	+2	6
6	Den Haag	5	2	0	3	-4	6
7	Groningen	4	1	1	2	+1	4
8	Sparta Rotterdam	4	1	1	2	-1	4
9	Willem II	4	1	1	2	-3	4
10	Nijmegen	4	1	1	2	-3	4
11	Excelsior	4	1	1	2	-5	4
12	AZ Alkmaar	2	1	0	1	+1	3
13	Heracles	4	0	3	1	-2	3
14	Twente	3	1	0	2	-3	3
15	Utrecht	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Roda	4	0	2	2	-7	2
17	Zwolle	3	0	1	2	-5	1
18	Go Ahead Eagles	4	0	1	3	-6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.