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Eredivisie

Referee: Dennis Higler

Utrecht

S S S U S

1–3

Full-time

Ajax

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Utrecht Ajax

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 92%

83%

100%

Points per game

2,7

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,8

5,3

Scored

2,8

4,8

Conceded

1,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+4,3

This season — Eredivisie · 14/16 matches

Win Ø 69%

50%

88%

Points per game

1,8

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

57%

75%

Both score Ø 41%

57%

25%

Average goals

3,0

4,0

Scored

1,8

3,6

Conceded

1,2

0,4

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+3,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

36% Possession 64%

8 Shots 17

2 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 6

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 9

3 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Utrecht 5. · Ajax 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	17	16	0	1	+52	48
2	Ajax	16	14	1	1	+50	43
3	Feyenoord	16	11	2	3	+15	35
4	Heracles	16	8	2	6	+0	26
5	Utrecht	14	7	4	3	+8	25
6	AZ Alkmaar	17	7	4	6	+4	25
7	VVV Venlo	17	6	5	6	-3	23
8	For Sittard	17	5	5	7	-1	20
9	Heerenveen	17	5	5	7	-3	20
10	Vitesse	14	5	4	5	+1	19
11	Den Haag	16	5	4	7	-11	19
12	FC Emmen	16	4	5	7	-15	17
13	Willem II	16	4	4	8	-10	16
14	Excelsior	17	4	4	9	-22	16
15	Groningen	16	4	3	9	-6	15
16	Zwolle	17	4	3	10	-13	15
17	NAC Breda	17	4	3	10	-17	15
18	De Graafschap	16	3	2	11	-29	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	9	9	0	0	+34	27
2	Feyenoord	9	8	0	1	+13	24
3	Ajax	8	7	1	0	+30	22
4	Heracles	8	6	0	2	+8	18
5	Utrecht	7	5	1	1	+11	16
6	VVV Venlo	8	4	3	1	+7	15
7	NAC Breda	9	4	1	4	-1	13
8	AZ Alkmaar	8	3	3	2	+4	12
9	For Sittard	9	3	3	3	+2	12
10	Vitesse	6	3	2	1	+2	11
11	De Graafschap	8	3	0	5	-6	9
12	Excelsior	9	2	3	4	-10	9
13	Den Haag	7	2	2	3	-6	8
14	Groningen	8	2	1	5	-1	7
15	FC Emmen	8	1	3	4	-6	6
16	Heerenveen	8	1	3	4	-7	6
17	Willem II	8	1	2	5	-6	5
18	Zwolle	9	1	2	6	-7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	8	7	0	1	+20	21
2	PSV Eindhoven	8	7	0	1	+18	21
3	Heerenveen	9	4	2	3	+4	14
4	AZ Alkmaar	9	4	1	4	+0	13
5	Feyenoord	7	3	2	2	+2	11
6	Willem II	8	3	2	3	-4	11
7	Den Haag	9	3	2	4	-5	11
8	FC Emmen	8	3	2	3	-9	11
9	Zwolle	8	3	1	4	-6	10
10	Utrecht	7	2	3	2	-3	9
11	Vitesse	8	2	2	4	-1	8
12	For Sittard	8	2	2	4	-3	8
13	Groningen	8	2	2	4	-5	8
14	Heracles	8	2	2	4	-8	8
15	VVV Venlo	9	2	2	5	-10	8
16	Excelsior	8	2	1	5	-12	7
17	NAC Breda	8	0	2	6	-16	2
18	De Graafschap	8	0	2	6	-23	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.