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Primeira Liga

Referee: Antonio Jorge Ferreira Goncalves

Sp Lisbon

S S U S S

1–0

Full-time

Estoril

S S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

2,3

1,0

Conceded

0,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 63%

75%

50%

Points per game

2,5

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

63%

38%

Both score Ø 44%

63%

25%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

2,1

1,0

Conceded

0,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

72% Possession 28%

16 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

10 Corners 2

6 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 1. · Estoril 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	8	6	2	0	+12	20
2	Porto	8	5	3	0	+12	18
3	Sp Braga	9	5	2	2	+12	17
4	Benfica	8	5	0	3	+13	15
5	Rio Ave	8	4	3	1	+5	15
6	Pacos Ferreira	8	4	2	2	+0	14
7	Vitoria Setubal	8	3	4	1	+4	13
8	Estoril	8	4	1	3	-2	13
9	Arouca	8	2	5	1	+1	11
10	Belenenses	9	2	4	3	-11	10
11	Boavista	8	2	3	3	-3	9
12	Nacional	8	2	2	4	-2	8
13	Maritimo	8	2	2	4	-4	8
14	Guimaraes	8	1	4	3	-7	7
15	U. Madeira	7	1	3	3	-2	6
16	Tondela	9	1	2	6	-8	5
17	Academica	8	1	1	6	-11	4
18	Moreirense	8	0	3	5	-9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	5	4	1	0	+13	13
2	Porto	5	4	1	0	+10	13
3	Benfica	5	4	0	1	+11	12
4	Estoril	4	3	1	0	+4	10
5	Rio Ave	4	3	0	1	+2	9
6	Belenenses	4	2	2	0	+3	8
7	Nacional	4	2	2	0	+3	8
8	Sp Lisbon	3	2	1	0	+5	7
9	Maritimo	4	2	1	1	+2	7
10	Pacos Ferreira	4	2	1	1	+0	7
11	Vitoria Setubal	4	1	3	0	+1	6
12	U. Madeira	3	1	2	0	+1	5
13	Guimaraes	4	1	2	1	+0	5
14	Arouca	4	1	2	1	-1	5
15	Boavista	3	1	1	1	+0	4
16	Tondela	5	1	1	3	-5	4
17	Academica	4	1	0	3	-7	3
18	Moreirense	4	0	2	2	-4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+7	13
2	Vitoria Setubal	4	2	1	1	+3	7
3	Pacos Ferreira	4	2	1	1	+0	7
4	Rio Ave	4	1	3	0	+3	6
5	Arouca	4	1	3	0	+2	6
6	Porto	3	1	2	0	+2	5
7	Boavista	5	1	2	2	-3	5
8	Sp Braga	4	1	1	2	-1	4
9	Benfica	3	1	0	2	+2	3
10	Estoril	4	1	0	3	-6	3
11	Guimaraes	4	0	2	2	-7	2
12	Belenenses	5	0	2	3	-14	2
13	Tondela	4	0	1	3	-3	1
14	U. Madeira	4	0	1	3	-3	1
15	Academica	4	0	1	3	-4	1
16	Moreirense	4	0	1	3	-5	1
17	Maritimo	4	0	1	3	-6	1
18	Nacional	4	0	0	4	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.