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Primeira Liga
Referee: Hugo Miguel
Rio Ave
U S U
1–2
Full-time
Sp Lisbon
S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rio Ave Sp Lisbon
Last 6 — all competitions · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,7
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 84%
67%
100%
Average goals
3,7
3,0
Scored
2,0
2,0
Conceded
1,7
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+1,0
This season — Primeira Liga · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,7
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 84%
67%
100%
Average goals
3,7
3,0
Scored
2,0
2,0
Conceded
1,7
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

41% Possession 59%
13 Shots 12
1 Shots on target 7
2 Blocked shots 2
5 Goalkeeper saves 0
6 Corners 7
1 Offside 1
0 Free kicks against 0
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Rio Ave 10. · Sp Lisbon 3. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Porto 4 3 1 0 +7 10
2 Benfica 4 3 0 1 +10 9
3 Sp Lisbon 3 2 1 0 +3 7
4 Arouca 4 2 1 1 +1 7
5 Sp Braga 4 2 0 2 +3 6
6 Nacional 4 2 0 2 +1 6
7 Estoril 4 2 0 2 -3 6
8 Maritimo 4 1 2 1 +2 5
9 Vitoria Setubal 4 1 2 1 +1 5
10 Rio Ave 3 1 2 0 +1 5
11 Pacos Ferreira 3 1 2 0 +1 5
12 U. Madeira 4 1 2 1 +0 5
13 Guimaraes 4 1 2 1 -2 5
14 Boavista 3 1 1 1 -3 4
15 Tondela 4 1 0 3 -2 3
16 Belenenses 4 0 3 1 -6 3
17 Moreirense 4 0 1 3 -5 1
18 Academica 4 0 0 4 -9 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Rio Ave Sp Lisbon
10′
⚽ Adrien Silva 0–1
37′
🟨 André Carrillo
39′
⚽ I. Slimani 0–2
45′
🟨 Teófilo Gutiérrez
Half-time 0–2
J. Kayembe 🔁
↦ Renan Bressan
46′
52′
🟨 Naldo
Nélson Monte 🔁
↦ Vilas Boas
57′
60′
🔁 João Mário
↦ B. Ruiz
1–2 Yazalde ⚽
69′
77′
🔁 Carlos Mané
↦ T. Gutiérrez
Pedro Moreira 🟨
80′
Zé Pedro 🔁
↦ M. Zeegelaar
82′
Alhassan Wakaso 🟨
85′
90′
🔁 João Pereira
↦ A. Carrillo
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Rio Ave

1 Cássio
16 Edimar Fraga D
14 Vilas Boas M
12 Lionn D
21 M. Zeegelaar D
3 Aníbal Capela D
11 Renan Bressan M
20 Pedro Moreira M
30 A. Wakaso M
17 Ukra M
88 Yazalde F
Bench (7)
77 J. Kayembe
44 Nélson Monte
89 Zé Pedro
71 Rui Vieira
15 L. Kizito
8 Tarantini
27 João Novais

Sp Lisbon

1 Rui Patrício G
4 Jefferson D
44 Naldo D
15 Paulo Oliveira D
47 Ricardo Esgaio M
6 A. Aquilani M
23 Adrien Silva M
20 B. Ruiz M
19 T. Gutiérrez F
9 I. Slimani F
18 A. Carrillo M
Bench (7)
17 João Mário
36 Carlos Mané
21 João Pereira
22 Marcelo Boeck
55 Tobias Figueiredo
10 F. Montero
60 Gelson Martins

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Hugo Miguel · 125 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
31,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.