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Primeira Liga
Referee: Jorge de Sousa
Estoril
T S T
1–0
Full-time
Sp Braga
S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Sp Braga
Last 6 — all competitions · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 17%
0%
33%
Average goals
2,7
2,7
Scored
0,7
2,0
Conceded
2,0
0,7
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+1,3
This season — Primeira Liga · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 17%
0%
33%
Average goals
2,7
2,7
Scored
0,7
2,0
Conceded
2,0
0,7
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+1,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

62% Possession 38%
7 Shots 9
3 Shots on target 3
2 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
6 Corners 4
0 Free kicks against 0
4 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 2
The table before the match Estoril 13. · Sp Braga 5. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Benfica 4 3 0 1 +10 9
2 Porto 3 2 1 0 +5 7
3 Sp Lisbon 3 2 1 0 +3 7
4 Arouca 3 2 1 0 +3 7
5 Sp Braga 3 2 0 1 +4 6
6 Vitoria Setubal 3 1 2 0 +4 5
7 Rio Ave 3 1 2 0 +1 5
8 Pacos Ferreira 3 1 2 0 +1 5
9 U. Madeira 3 1 1 1 +0 4
10 Boavista 3 1 1 1 -3 4
11 Tondela 3 1 0 2 -1 3
12 Nacional 3 1 0 2 -1 3
13 Estoril 3 1 0 2 -4 3
14 Belenenses 4 0 3 1 -6 3
15 Maritimo 3 0 2 1 -1 2
16 Guimaraes 3 0 2 1 -3 2
17 Moreirense 3 0 0 3 -5 0
18 Academica 3 0 0 3 -7 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Estoril Sp Braga
Afonso Taira 🟨
33′
Half-time 0–0
46′
🟨 Mauro
50′
🟨 Mauro
50′
🟥 Mauro
56′
🔁 N.S. Vukčević
↦ Rui Fonte
60′
🟨 Willy Boly
1–0 Léo Bonatini ⚽
68′
74′
🔁 Rafa Silva
↦ Marcelo Goiano
Leandro Chaparro 🟨
79′
80′
🟥 Willy Boly
82′
🔁 Ricardo Ferreira
↦ Alan
Elvis Babanco 🟨
84′
Dieguinho 🔁
↦ Gerso Fernandes
85′
A. Esiti 🔁
↦ Babanco
85′
Mattheus 🔁
↦ L. Chaparro
89′
Léo Bonatini 🟨
90′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Estoril

1 P. Kieszek G
5 Anderson Luis D
7 Mano D
2 Yohan Tavares D
34 Diego Carlos D
91 L. Chaparro
55 Babanco M
6 Afonso Taira M
20 Bruno César M
10 Gerso Fernandes F
9 Léo Bonatini F
Bench (7)
30 Dieguinho
13 A. Esiti
28 Mattheus
12 Georgemy
15 O. Diakhite
3 A. Kakuba
93 Matheuzinho

Sp Braga

1 S. Kritsyuk G
6 André Pinto D
15 Baiano D
5 W. Boly D
87 Marcelo Goiano D
8 Luiz Carlos M
63 Mauro M
30 Alan M
17 Rui Fonte F
23 Pedro Santos M
9 Crislan F
Bench (7)
35 N.S. Vukčević
18 Rafa Silva
24 Ricardo Ferreira
19 N. Stojiljković
21 Filipe Augusto
10 Joan Román
92 Matheus

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Jorge de Sousa · 70 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
28,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.