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Primeira Liga

Referee: Bruno Miguel Duarte Paixao

Moreirense

T U U T U

2–0

Full-time

Pacos Ferreira

T T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Moreirense Pacos Ferreira

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 22%

44%

Points per game

0,4

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 28%

22%

33%

Both score Ø 39%

44%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,1

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

49% Possession 51%

14 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 0

5 Blocked shots 4

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Moreirense 18. · Pacos Ferreira 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	7	2	0	+13	23
2	Porto	8	5	3	0	+12	18
3	Rio Ave	9	5	3	1	+6	18
4	Sp Braga	9	5	2	2	+12	17
5	Benfica	8	5	0	3	+13	15
6	Vitoria Setubal	9	3	5	1	+4	14
7	Pacos Ferreira	9	4	2	3	-1	14
8	Estoril	10	4	2	4	-3	14
9	Arouca	9	2	6	1	+1	12
10	Nacional	10	3	2	5	-2	11
11	Maritimo	9	3	2	4	-3	11
12	Guimaraes	10	2	4	4	-7	10
13	Belenenses	9	2	4	3	-11	10
14	Boavista	9	2	3	4	-4	9
15	U. Madeira	7	1	3	3	-2	6
16	Academica	10	1	3	6	-11	6
17	Tondela	9	1	2	6	-8	5
18	Moreirense	9	0	4	5	-9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	5	4	1	0	+13	13
2	Porto	5	4	1	0	+10	13
3	Benfica	5	4	0	1	+11	12
4	Rio Ave	5	4	0	1	+3	12
5	Estoril	5	3	2	0	+4	11
6	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+6	10
7	Belenenses	4	2	2	0	+3	8
8	Nacional	4	2	2	0	+3	8
9	Maritimo	4	2	1	1	+2	7
10	Vitoria Setubal	5	1	4	0	+1	7
11	Pacos Ferreira	5	2	1	2	-1	7
12	U. Madeira	3	1	2	0	+1	5
13	Arouca	4	1	2	1	-1	5
14	Guimaraes	5	1	2	2	-1	5
15	Boavista	4	1	1	2	-1	4
16	Tondela	5	1	1	3	-5	4
17	Academica	5	1	1	3	-7	4
18	Moreirense	4	0	2	2	-4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+7	13
2	Vitoria Setubal	4	2	1	1	+3	7
3	Arouca	5	1	4	0	+2	7
4	Pacos Ferreira	4	2	1	1	+0	7
5	Rio Ave	4	1	3	0	+3	6
6	Porto	3	1	2	0	+2	5
7	Boavista	5	1	2	2	-3	5
8	Guimaraes	5	1	2	2	-6	5
9	Sp Braga	4	1	1	2	-1	4
10	Maritimo	5	1	1	3	-5	4
11	Benfica	3	1	0	2	+2	3
12	Nacional	6	1	0	5	-5	3
13	Estoril	5	1	0	4	-7	3
14	Academica	5	0	2	3	-4	2
15	Moreirense	5	0	2	3	-5	2
16	Belenenses	5	0	2	3	-14	2
17	Tondela	4	0	1	3	-3	1
18	U. Madeira	4	0	1	3	-3	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.