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Primeira Liga

Referee: Bruno Alexandre Da Silva Esteves

Maritimo

U S T S T

0–2

Full-time

Pacos Ferreira

U S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Maritimo Pacos Ferreira

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 36%

29%

43%

Points per game

1,1

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

43%

Both score Ø 57%

71%

43%

Average goals

3,1

2,3

Scored

1,4

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

61% Possession 39%

14 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

9 Corners 6

3 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Maritimo 11. · Pacos Ferreira 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	7	5	2	0	+12	17
2	Sp Lisbon	7	5	2	0	+9	17
3	Rio Ave	7	4	2	1	+5	14
4	Sp Braga	7	4	1	2	+8	13
5	Benfica	6	4	0	2	+12	12
6	Estoril	7	4	0	3	-2	12
7	Pacos Ferreira	7	3	2	2	-2	11
8	Vitoria Setubal	7	2	4	1	+2	10
9	Arouca	7	2	4	1	+1	10
10	Boavista	8	2	3	3	-3	9
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	-2	8
12	Nacional	8	2	2	4	-2	8
13	Belenenses	7	1	4	2	-8	7
14	U. Madeira	6	1	3	2	-1	6
15	Guimaraes	7	1	3	3	-7	6
16	Tondela	7	1	1	5	-4	4
17	Moreirense	7	0	3	4	-7	3
18	Academica	7	1	0	6	-11	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+14	12
2	Porto	4	4	0	0	+10	12
3	Sp Braga	4	3	1	0	+9	10
4	Estoril	3	3	0	0	+4	9
5	Rio Ave	4	3	0	1	+2	9
6	Nacional	4	2	2	0	+3	8
7	Sp Lisbon	3	2	1	0	+5	7
8	Maritimo	3	2	1	0	+4	7
9	Pacos Ferreira	4	2	1	1	+0	7
10	Vitoria Setubal	4	1	3	0	+1	6
11	Belenenses	3	1	2	0	+2	5
12	U. Madeira	3	1	2	0	+1	5
13	Guimaraes	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Boavista	3	1	1	1	+0	4
15	Arouca	3	1	1	1	-1	4
16	Tondela	4	1	1	2	-1	4
17	Academica	4	1	0	3	-7	3
18	Moreirense	3	0	2	1	-2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+4	10
2	Arouca	4	1	3	0	+2	6
3	Rio Ave	3	1	2	0	+3	5
4	Porto	3	1	2	0	+2	5
5	Boavista	5	1	2	2	-3	5
6	Vitoria Setubal	3	1	1	1	+1	4
7	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	1	1	-2	4
8	Sp Braga	3	1	0	2	-1	3
9	Estoril	4	1	0	3	-6	3
10	Guimaraes	4	0	2	2	-7	2
11	Belenenses	4	0	2	2	-10	2
12	U. Madeira	3	0	1	2	-2	1
13	Moreirense	4	0	1	3	-5	1
14	Maritimo	4	0	1	3	-6	1
15	Benfica	2	0	0	2	-2	0
16	Tondela	3	0	0	3	-3	0
17	Academica	3	0	0	3	-4	0
18	Nacional	4	0	0	4	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.