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Primeira Liga

Referee: Rui Oliveira

U. Madeira

T T T U T

2–0

Full-time

Tondela

U U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

U. Madeira Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

0,5

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 10/11 matches

Win Ø 10%

10%

Points per game

0,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

40%

27%

Both score Ø 33%

30%

36%

Average goals

1,7

1,8

Scored

0,5

Conceded

1,2

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2 Shots 0

2 Shots on target 0

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match U. Madeira 16. · Tondela 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	12	10	2	0	+16	32
2	Porto	12	9	3	0	+20	30
3	Benfica	11	8	0	3	+20	24
4	Sp Braga	11	6	2	3	+11	20
5	Vitoria Setubal	12	4	6	2	+5	18
6	Rio Ave	11	5	3	3	+4	18
7	Pacos Ferreira	12	5	2	5	-2	17
8	Nacional	11	4	2	5	+0	14
9	Maritimo	12	4	2	6	-5	14
10	Estoril	11	4	2	5	-5	14
11	Arouca	11	2	7	2	+0	13
12	Guimaraes	11	3	4	4	-6	13
13	Belenenses	12	3	4	5	-14	13
14	Moreirense	11	2	4	5	-6	10
15	Boavista	11	2	3	6	-7	9
16	U. Madeira	10	1	4	5	-7	7
17	Academica	12	1	4	7	-14	7
18	Tondela	11	1	2	8	-10	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	7	6	1	0	+13	19
2	Benfica	7	6	0	1	+16	18
3	Sp Braga	6	4	1	1	+11	13
4	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+7	13
5	Rio Ave	6	4	0	2	+2	12
6	Nacional	5	3	2	0	+5	11
7	Estoril	5	3	2	0	+4	11
8	Belenenses	6	3	2	1	+1	11
9	Maritimo	6	3	1	2	+2	10
10	Pacos Ferreira	6	3	1	2	+1	10
11	Vitoria Setubal	6	1	5	0	+1	8
12	Guimaraes	5	1	2	2	-1	5
13	Arouca	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	Moreirense	5	1	2	2	-2	5
15	U. Madeira	5	1	2	2	-4	5
16	Academica	6	1	2	3	-7	5
17	Boavista	5	1	1	3	-2	4
18	Tondela	6	1	1	4	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+9	19
2	Porto	5	3	2	0	+7	11
3	Vitoria Setubal	6	3	1	2	+4	10
4	Arouca	6	1	5	0	+2	8
5	Guimaraes	6	2	2	2	-5	8
6	Sp Braga	5	2	1	2	+0	7
7	Pacos Ferreira	6	2	1	3	-3	7
8	Benfica	4	2	0	2	+4	6
9	Rio Ave	5	1	3	1	+2	6
10	Moreirense	6	1	2	3	-4	5
11	Boavista	6	1	2	3	-5	5
12	Maritimo	6	1	1	4	-7	4
13	Nacional	6	1	0	5	-5	3
14	Estoril	6	1	0	5	-9	3
15	U. Madeira	5	0	2	3	-3	2
16	Academica	6	0	2	4	-7	2
17	Belenenses	6	0	2	4	-15	2
18	Tondela	5	0	1	4	-4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.