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Premier League

Referee: Mark Clattenburg

Arsenal

T S S U U

0–1

Full-time

Chelsea

U U S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,5

Scored

1,3

2,2

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,8

This season — Premier League · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 43%

59%

27%

Points per game

2,0

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

68%

Both score Ø 50%

41%

59%

Average goals

2,6

3,0

Scored

1,7

1,4

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

46% Possession 54%

9 Shots 12

1 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 7

1 Offside 7

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 3. · Chelsea 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	23	13	8	2	+16	47
2	Man City	23	13	5	5	+22	44
3	Arsenal	22	13	5	4	+16	44
4	Tottenham	23	11	9	3	+22	42
5	Man United	23	10	7	6	+7	37
6	West Ham	23	9	9	5	+8	36
7	Liverpool	23	9	7	7	-2	34
8	Southampton	23	9	6	8	+8	33
9	Stoke	23	9	6	8	-1	33
10	Watford	23	9	5	9	+1	32
11	Crystal Palace	23	9	4	10	-3	31
12	Everton	23	6	11	6	+6	29
13	West Brom	23	7	7	9	-8	28
14	Chelsea	22	6	7	9	-3	25
15	Swansea	23	6	7	10	-9	25
16	Bournemouth	23	6	7	10	-11	25
17	Norwich	23	6	5	12	-15	23
18	Newcastle	23	5	6	12	-16	21
19	Sunderland	23	5	4	14	-18	19
20	Aston Villa	23	2	7	14	-20	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	12	9	1	2	+21	28
2	Arsenal	10	7	2	1	+10	23
3	Tottenham	12	6	4	2	+13	22
4	Leicester	11	6	4	1	+6	22
5	Southampton	12	6	2	4	+9	20
6	Man United	11	5	4	2	+7	19
7	West Ham	11	4	5	2	+4	17
8	Stoke	11	5	2	4	+3	17
9	Watford	12	5	2	5	+2	17
10	Chelsea	12	4	4	4	+1	16
11	Liverpool	11	4	4	3	-1	16
12	Swansea	12	4	4	4	-4	16
13	Norwich	11	4	3	4	+1	15
14	West Brom	12	4	3	5	-3	15
15	Newcastle	12	3	5	4	+1	14
16	Crystal Palace	12	4	2	6	-2	14
17	Everton	12	3	4	5	+2	13
18	Bournemouth	11	3	4	4	-2	13
19	Sunderland	11	3	3	5	+1	12
20	Aston Villa	11	1	4	6	-6	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	12	7	4	1	+10	25
2	Arsenal	12	6	3	3	+6	21
3	Tottenham	11	5	5	1	+9	20
4	West Ham	12	5	4	3	+4	19
5	Man United	12	5	3	4	+0	18
6	Liverpool	12	5	3	4	-1	18
7	Crystal Palace	11	5	2	4	-1	17
8	Everton	11	3	7	1	+4	16
9	Man City	11	4	4	3	+1	16
10	Stoke	12	4	4	4	-4	16
11	Watford	11	4	3	4	-1	15
12	Southampton	11	3	4	4	-1	13
13	West Brom	11	3	4	4	-5	13
14	Bournemouth	12	3	3	6	-9	12
15	Chelsea	10	2	3	5	-4	9
16	Swansea	11	2	3	6	-5	9
17	Norwich	12	2	2	8	-16	8
18	Newcastle	11	2	1	8	-17	7
19	Sunderland	12	2	1	9	-19	7
20	Aston Villa	12	1	3	8	-14	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.