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Primeira Liga

Referee: Carlos Xistra

Belenenses

U S T U S

2–1

Full-time

Nacional

U T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,0

3,2

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

1,2

2,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

1,0

2,3

Scored

0,3

Conceded

0,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

56% Possession 44%

16 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

11 Corners 6

1 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 21

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Belenenses 11. · Nacional 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	4	3	1	0	+5	10
2	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+4	9
3	Vitoria Setubal	3	2	1	0	+4	7
4	Sp Braga	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	+3	6
6	Porto	3	2	0	1	+2	6
7	Boavista	3	1	2	0	+2	5
8	Chaves	3	1	2	0	+1	5
9	Moreirense	3	1	1	1	+2	4
10	Rio Ave	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Belenenses	3	1	1	1	-1	4
12	Feirense	3	1	0	2	-2	3
13	Arouca	4	1	0	3	-3	3
14	Maritimo	3	1	0	2	-3	3
15	Pacos Ferreira	3	0	1	2	-3	1
16	Tondela	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Estoril	3	0	0	3	-5	0
18	Nacional	3	0	0	3	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vitoria Setubal	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Boavista	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+1	3
5	Arouca	2	1	0	1	+1	3
6	Porto	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	-1	3
8	Benfica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Sp Braga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Chaves	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Belenenses	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
15	Nacional	2	0	0	2	-3	0
16	Tondela	2	0	0	2	-3	0
17	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
18	Estoril	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Chaves	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
5	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Porto	2	1	0	1	+1	3
7	Feirense	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	Belenenses	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Vitoria Setubal	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Rio Ave	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Tondela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Boavista	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Pacos Ferreira	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Arouca	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.