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Primeira Liga

Referee: Bruno Alexandre Da Silva Esteves

Vitoria Setubal

T T U S U

2–0

Full-time

Arouca

S U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vitoria Setubal Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 0%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

2,0

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

0,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

50% Possession 50%

14 Shots 4

8 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

8 Corners 0

1 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Vitoria Setubal 8. · Arouca 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+4	9
2	Benfica	3	2	1	0	+4	7
3	Sp Braga	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	+3	6
5	Porto	3	2	0	1	+2	6
6	Boavista	3	1	2	0	+2	5
7	Moreirense	3	1	1	1	+2	4
8	Vitoria Setubal	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	Rio Ave	3	1	1	1	-1	4
10	Belenenses	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Arouca	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Feirense	3	1	0	2	-2	3
13	Maritimo	3	1	0	2	-3	3
14	Chaves	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Pacos Ferreira	3	0	1	2	-3	1
16	Tondela	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Nacional	2	0	0	2	-4	0
18	Estoril	3	0	0	3	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Boavista	2	1	1	0	+2	4
3	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Vitoria Setubal	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+1	3
6	Porto	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	-1	3
8	Benfica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Sp Braga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Chaves	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Belenenses	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-2	0
15	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
16	Tondela	2	0	0	2	-3	0
17	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
18	Estoril	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Porto	2	1	0	1	+1	3
6	Feirense	2	1	0	1	+1	3
7	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	-1	3
9	Belenenses	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	Chaves	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Vitoria Setubal	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Rio Ave	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Tondela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Boavista	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Pacos Ferreira	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.