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Primeira Liga

Referee: Vitor Ferreira

Nacional

U S S U T

2–0

Full-time

Chaves

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Chaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,0

Scored

1,5

0,5

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 19%

23%

15%

Points per game

1,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

62%

54%

Both score Ø 50%

54%

46%

Average goals

3,2

2,4

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

2,0

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

51% Possession 49%

11 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 4

3 Offside 0

18 Free kicks against 21

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 13. · Chaves 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	13	11	0	2	+20	33
2	Sp Lisbon	13	10	1	2	+16	31
3	Sp Braga	13	9	3	1	+16	30
4	Benfica	13	9	2	2	+14	29
5	Guimaraes	13	6	4	3	+5	22
6	Belenenses	14	5	7	2	+4	22
7	Moreirense	14	7	1	6	-4	22
8	Santa Clara	14	6	2	6	+2	20
9	Portimonense	14	6	2	6	-5	20
10	Rio Ave	13	5	4	4	+1	19
11	Vitoria Setubal	14	5	2	7	-2	17
12	Boavista	14	3	4	7	-6	13
13	Nacional	13	3	4	6	-11	13
14	Tondela	14	3	3	8	-5	12
15	Maritimo	14	3	2	9	-10	11
16	Aves	14	3	2	9	-11	11
17	Feirense	14	2	4	8	-13	10
18	Chaves	13	2	1	10	-11	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	7	0	0	+14	21
2	Sp Braga	7	6	1	0	+12	19
3	Porto	7	6	0	1	+14	18
4	Portimonense	7	4	2	1	+4	14
5	Rio Ave	7	4	2	1	+3	14
6	Benfica	6	4	1	1	+6	13
7	Moreirense	7	4	1	2	+2	13
8	Guimaraes	6	3	2	1	+3	11
9	Belenenses	7	3	2	2	+2	11
10	Vitoria Setubal	7	3	0	4	+0	9
11	Aves	7	2	2	3	+1	8
12	Tondela	8	2	2	4	-2	8
13	Feirense	7	1	4	2	-1	7
14	Boavista	6	2	1	3	-1	7
15	Santa Clara	7	2	1	4	-2	7
16	Maritimo	7	2	1	4	-4	7
17	Chaves	6	1	1	4	-2	4
18	Nacional	6	1	1	4	-8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+8	16
2	Porto	6	5	0	1	+6	15
3	Santa Clara	7	4	1	2	+4	13
4	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	+4	11
5	Guimaraes	7	3	2	2	+2	11
6	Belenenses	7	2	5	0	+2	11
7	Sp Lisbon	6	3	1	2	+2	10
8	Nacional	7	2	3	2	-3	9
9	Moreirense	7	3	0	4	-6	9
10	Vitoria Setubal	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Boavista	8	1	3	4	-5	6
12	Portimonense	7	2	0	5	-9	6
13	Rio Ave	6	1	2	3	-2	5
14	Tondela	6	1	1	4	-3	4
15	Maritimo	7	1	1	5	-6	4
16	Chaves	7	1	0	6	-9	3
17	Aves	7	1	0	6	-12	3
18	Feirense	7	1	0	6	-12	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.