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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo

Sp Lisbon

S S S S S

5–2

Full-time

Nacional

T U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

100%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

4,0

2,5

Scored

2,7

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 50%

75%

25%

Points per game

2,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

67%

58%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,1

2,8

Scored

2,1

1,1

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

56% Possession 44%

20 Shots 15

9 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 7

1 Offside 1

25 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 4. · Nacional 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	13	11	0	2	+20	33
2	Sp Braga	13	9	3	1	+16	30
3	Benfica	13	9	2	2	+14	29
4	Sp Lisbon	12	9	1	2	+13	28
5	Guimaraes	13	6	4	3	+5	22
6	Rio Ave	13	5	4	4	+1	19
7	Belenenses	13	4	7	2	+1	19
8	Moreirense	13	6	1	6	-5	19
9	Santa Clara	13	5	2	6	+0	17
10	Vitoria Setubal	13	5	2	6	+0	17
11	Portimonense	13	5	2	6	-6	17
12	Boavista	13	3	4	6	-5	13
13	Nacional	12	3	4	5	-8	13
14	Aves	13	3	2	8	-8	11
15	Maritimo	13	3	2	8	-9	11
16	Feirense	13	2	4	7	-12	10
17	Tondela	13	2	3	8	-6	9
18	Chaves	13	2	1	10	-11	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	7	6	1	0	+12	19
2	Porto	7	6	0	1	+14	18
3	Sp Lisbon	6	6	0	0	+11	18
4	Portimonense	7	4	2	1	+4	14
5	Rio Ave	7	4	2	1	+3	14
6	Benfica	6	4	1	1	+6	13
7	Guimaraes	6	3	2	1	+3	11
8	Moreirense	6	3	1	2	+1	10
9	Vitoria Setubal	6	3	0	3	+2	9
10	Aves	7	2	2	3	+1	8
11	Belenenses	6	2	2	2	-1	8
12	Feirense	6	1	4	1	+0	7
13	Boavista	6	2	1	3	-1	7
14	Santa Clara	7	2	1	4	-2	7
15	Maritimo	7	2	1	4	-4	7
16	Tondela	7	1	2	4	-3	5
17	Chaves	6	1	1	4	-2	4
18	Nacional	6	1	1	4	-8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+8	16
2	Porto	6	5	0	1	+6	15
3	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	+4	11
4	Guimaraes	7	3	2	2	+2	11
5	Belenenses	7	2	5	0	+2	11
6	Sp Lisbon	6	3	1	2	+2	10
7	Santa Clara	6	3	1	2	+2	10
8	Nacional	6	2	3	1	+0	9
9	Moreirense	7	3	0	4	-6	9
10	Vitoria Setubal	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Boavista	7	1	3	3	-4	6
12	Rio Ave	6	1	2	3	-2	5
13	Tondela	6	1	1	4	-3	4
14	Maritimo	6	1	1	4	-5	4
15	Chaves	7	1	0	6	-9	3
16	Aves	6	1	0	5	-9	3
17	Portimonense	6	1	0	5	-10	3
18	Feirense	7	1	0	6	-12	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.