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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Sp Lisbon

T S T S S

2–1

Full-time

Chaves

S U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Chaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 45%

67%

22%

Points per game

2,1

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

56%

Both score Ø 50%

56%

44%

Average goals

2,8

2,6

Scored

1,8

0,9

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

64% Possession 36%

17 Shots 3

5 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

10 Corners 2

3 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 4. · Chaves 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	10	8	0	2	+15	24
2	Sp Braga	10	6	3	1	+9	21
3	Benfica	10	6	2	2	+8	20
4	Sp Lisbon	9	6	1	2	+7	19
5	Rio Ave	10	5	3	2	+4	18
6	Moreirense	10	5	1	4	-3	16
7	Guimaraes	10	4	3	3	+3	15
8	Vitoria Setubal	10	4	2	4	+2	14
9	Santa Clara	10	4	2	4	+1	14
10	Belenenses	10	2	6	2	-1	12
11	Portimonense	10	3	2	5	-6	11
12	Aves	10	3	1	6	-4	10
13	Maritimo	10	3	1	6	-7	10
14	Tondela	10	2	3	5	-2	9
15	Feirense	10	2	3	5	-4	9
16	Boavista	10	2	3	5	-6	9
17	Nacional	10	2	3	5	-9	9
18	Chaves	9	2	1	6	-7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	6	5	0	1	+11	15
2	Sp Braga	5	4	1	0	+6	13
3	Rio Ave	5	4	1	0	+5	13
4	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+7	12
5	Benfica	5	3	1	1	+2	10
6	Moreirense	5	3	1	1	+2	10
7	Vitoria Setubal	5	3	0	2	+3	9
8	Guimaraes	5	2	2	1	+2	8
9	Portimonense	5	2	2	1	+1	8
10	Aves	5	2	1	2	+2	7
11	Santa Clara	5	2	1	2	+0	7
12	Maritimo	5	2	1	2	-2	7
13	Feirense	5	1	3	1	+0	6
14	Tondela	6	1	2	3	-2	5
15	Belenenses	5	1	2	2	-2	5
16	Chaves	4	1	1	2	+0	4
17	Boavista	4	1	1	2	-2	4
18	Nacional	5	1	0	4	-8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	5	3	1	1	+6	10
2	Porto	4	3	0	1	+4	9
3	Sp Braga	5	2	2	1	+3	8
4	Guimaraes	5	2	1	2	+1	7
5	Santa Clara	5	2	1	2	+1	7
6	Belenenses	5	1	4	0	+1	7
7	Sp Lisbon	5	2	1	2	+0	7
8	Nacional	5	1	3	1	-1	6
9	Moreirense	5	2	0	3	-5	6
10	Rio Ave	5	1	2	2	-1	5
11	Vitoria Setubal	5	1	2	2	-1	5
12	Boavista	6	1	2	3	-4	5
13	Tondela	4	1	1	2	+0	4
14	Feirense	5	1	0	4	-4	3
15	Maritimo	5	1	0	4	-5	3
16	Aves	5	1	0	4	-6	3
17	Chaves	5	1	0	4	-7	3
18	Portimonense	5	1	0	4	-7	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.