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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Oliveira

Tondela

S T U T U

1–0

Full-time

Guimaraes

T S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

83%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

3,2

1,2

Scored

1,5

0,5

Conceded

1,7

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 35%

25%

45%

Points per game

1,0

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

55%

30%

Both score Ø 55%

65%

45%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,6

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,3

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

41% Possession 59%

12 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 3

3 Offside 8

19 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 13. · Guimaraes 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	21	16	3	2	+30	51
2	Benfica	20	15	2	3	+27	47
3	Sp Braga	20	14	4	2	+21	46
4	Sp Lisbon	20	12	3	5	+14	39
5	Moreirense	21	11	2	8	-2	35
6	Guimaraes	20	9	5	6	+5	32
7	Belenenses	20	7	8	5	+1	29
8	Rio Ave	21	7	7	7	+0	28
9	Portimonense	21	8	3	10	-5	27
10	Santa Clara	20	7	3	10	-2	24
11	Vitoria Setubal	20	5	6	9	-4	21
12	Aves	21	6	3	12	-11	21
13	Tondela	20	5	5	10	-6	20
14	Maritimo	21	6	2	13	-13	20
15	Nacional	20	5	5	10	-15	20
16	Boavista	20	5	4	11	-11	19
17	Chaves	20	5	3	12	-13	18
18	Feirense	20	2	8	10	-16	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	10	9	1	0	+16	28
2	Sp Lisbon	11	9	1	1	+14	28
3	Porto	10	9	0	1	+20	27
4	Benfica	9	7	1	1	+16	22
5	Moreirense	10	6	2	2	+4	20
6	Portimonense	11	5	3	3	+4	18
7	Guimaraes	10	5	3	2	+4	18
8	Rio Ave	11	4	5	2	+2	17
9	Belenenses	10	4	3	3	+2	15
10	Boavista	10	4	1	5	-1	13
11	Aves	11	3	3	5	-1	12
12	Vitoria Setubal	9	3	2	4	+0	11
13	Tondela	10	3	2	5	-3	11
14	Chaves	10	3	2	5	-3	11
15	Nacional	11	3	2	6	-9	11
16	Santa Clara	11	3	1	7	-5	10
17	Maritimo	10	3	1	6	-6	10
18	Feirense	9	1	5	3	-2	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	11	8	1	2	+11	25
2	Porto	11	7	3	1	+10	24
3	Sp Braga	10	5	3	2	+5	18
4	Moreirense	11	5	0	6	-6	15
5	Santa Clara	9	4	2	3	+3	14
6	Guimaraes	10	4	2	4	+1	14
7	Belenenses	10	3	5	2	-1	14
8	Sp Lisbon	9	3	2	4	+0	11
9	Rio Ave	10	3	2	5	-2	11
10	Vitoria Setubal	11	2	4	5	-4	10
11	Maritimo	11	3	1	7	-7	10
12	Tondela	10	2	3	5	-3	9
13	Nacional	9	2	3	4	-6	9
14	Portimonense	10	3	0	7	-9	9
15	Aves	10	3	0	7	-10	9
16	Chaves	10	2	1	7	-10	7
17	Boavista	10	1	3	6	-10	6
18	Feirense	11	1	3	7	-14	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.