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Primeira Liga

Referee: Artur Soares Dias

Aves

S T U S U

0–1

Full-time

Chaves

T U T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aves Chaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,7

2,0

Scored

0,7

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 24%

28%

20%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

44%

Both score Ø 46%

48%

44%

Average goals

2,6

2,2

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,5

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

55% Possession 45%

26 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 2

10 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

11 Corners 7

16 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aves 12. · Chaves 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	26	20	3	3	+38	63
2	Benfica	25	19	3	3	+45	60
3	Sp Braga	26	18	4	4	+20	58
4	Sp Lisbon	26	17	4	5	+23	55
5	Guimaraes	26	12	6	8	+8	42
6	Moreirense	25	13	3	9	+1	42
7	Belenenses	26	9	11	6	+6	38
8	Santa Clara	26	9	5	12	-1	32
9	Portimonense	26	9	5	12	-5	32
10	Rio Ave	25	7	8	10	-3	29
11	Maritimo	26	8	3	15	-15	27
12	Aves	25	7	5	13	-12	26
13	Boavista	26	7	5	14	-14	26
14	Nacional	25	7	5	13	-26	26
15	Vitoria Setubal	26	5	10	11	-7	25
16	Tondela	25	6	6	13	-11	24
17	Chaves	25	5	6	14	-18	21
18	Feirense	25	2	8	15	-29	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	14	12	1	1	+20	37
2	Sp Braga	13	11	1	1	+16	34
3	Porto	13	11	0	2	+24	33
4	Benfica	12	9	2	1	+30	29
5	Guimaraes	13	8	3	2	+9	27
6	Moreirense	12	7	3	2	+6	24
7	Portimonense	13	6	4	3	+8	22
8	Belenenses	13	5	4	4	+5	19
9	Boavista	13	6	1	6	+0	19
10	Rio Ave	13	4	5	4	+0	17
11	Nacional	13	5	2	6	-4	17
12	Aves	13	4	3	6	-2	15
13	Vitoria Setubal	13	3	5	5	-1	14
14	Santa Clara	13	4	2	7	-3	14
15	Chaves	13	3	5	5	-3	14
16	Tondela	12	4	2	6	-5	14
17	Maritimo	12	4	2	6	-5	14
18	Feirense	12	1	5	6	-7	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	13	10	1	2	+15	31
2	Porto	13	9	3	1	+14	30
3	Sp Braga	13	7	3	3	+4	24
4	Belenenses	13	4	7	2	+1	19
5	Sp Lisbon	12	5	3	4	+3	18
6	Santa Clara	13	5	3	5	+2	18
7	Moreirense	13	6	0	7	-5	18
8	Guimaraes	13	4	3	6	-1	15
9	Maritimo	14	4	1	9	-10	13
10	Rio Ave	12	3	3	6	-3	12
11	Vitoria Setubal	13	2	5	6	-6	11
12	Aves	12	3	2	7	-10	11
13	Tondela	13	2	4	7	-6	10
14	Portimonense	13	3	1	9	-13	10
15	Nacional	12	2	3	7	-22	9
16	Boavista	13	1	4	8	-14	7
17	Chaves	12	2	1	9	-15	7
18	Feirense	13	1	3	9	-22	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.