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Eredivisie

Referee: Serdar Gozubuyuk

AZ Alkmaar

S S T S U

1–0

Full-time

Ajax

T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Ajax

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,2

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

3,3

4,2

Scored

2,7

3,7

Conceded

0,7

0,5

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+3,2

This season — Eredivisie · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 66%

52%

80%

Points per game

1,8

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 76%

72%

80%

Both score Ø 42%

48%

36%

Average goals

3,2

4,4

Scored

2,0

3,5

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+2,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

35% Possession 65%

17 Shots 15

8 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

2 Corners 7

1 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 4. · Ajax 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	26	21	4	1	+63	67
2	Ajax	25	20	2	3	+67	62
3	Feyenoord	26	14	5	7	+22	47
4	AZ Alkmaar	25	13	5	7	+21	44
5	Heracles	24	12	3	9	+2	39
6	Vitesse	23	9	7	7	+7	34
7	Utrecht	23	9	7	7	+6	34
8	Willem II	26	10	4	12	-7	34
9	Heerenveen	26	8	9	9	-3	33
10	VVV Venlo	26	9	5	12	-12	32
11	Groningen	23	8	5	10	-1	29
12	For Sittard	26	8	5	13	-18	29
13	Den Haag	25	7	7	11	-16	28
14	Zwolle	25	7	5	13	-13	26
15	Excelsior	25	7	5	13	-25	26
16	De Graafschap	26	7	4	15	-24	25
17	FC Emmen	26	6	7	13	-30	25
18	NAC Breda	26	4	5	17	-39	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	13	12	1	0	+42	37
2	Ajax	13	11	2	0	+46	35
3	Feyenoord	13	11	0	2	+24	33
4	Heracles	12	9	0	3	+14	27
5	AZ Alkmaar	12	7	3	2	+17	24
6	Vitesse	11	6	4	1	+7	22
7	For Sittard	13	6	3	4	+6	21
8	VVV Venlo	13	6	3	4	+6	21
9	Utrecht	12	5	4	3	+8	19
10	Excelsior	13	5	3	5	-8	18
11	De Graafschap	13	5	2	6	+0	17
12	Groningen	11	5	1	5	+4	16
13	NAC Breda	13	4	3	6	-8	15
14	Den Haag	13	4	3	6	-10	15
15	Willem II	12	4	2	6	-3	14
16	Zwolle	13	3	3	7	-7	12
17	Heerenveen	13	2	5	6	-10	11
18	FC Emmen	13	2	5	6	-10	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	13	9	3	1	+21	30
2	Ajax	12	9	0	3	+21	27
3	Heerenveen	13	6	4	3	+7	22
4	AZ Alkmaar	13	6	2	5	+4	20
5	Willem II	14	6	2	6	-4	20
6	Utrecht	11	4	3	4	-2	15
7	Feyenoord	13	3	5	5	-2	14
8	Zwolle	12	4	2	6	-6	14
9	FC Emmen	13	4	2	7	-20	14
10	Groningen	12	3	4	5	-5	13
11	Den Haag	12	3	4	5	-6	13
12	Vitesse	12	3	3	6	+0	12
13	Heracles	12	3	3	6	-12	12
14	VVV Venlo	13	3	2	8	-18	11
15	Excelsior	12	2	2	8	-17	8
16	For Sittard	13	2	2	9	-24	8
17	De Graafschap	13	2	2	9	-24	8
18	NAC Breda	13	0	2	11	-31	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.