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La Liga

Referee: Jose Luis Gonzalez Gonzalez

Villarreal

U S T T S

3–1

Full-time

Vallecano

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Vallecano

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,3

This season — La Liga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 21%

19%

22%

Points per game

1,0

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

52%

59%

Both score Ø 56%

52%

59%

Average goals

2,4

2,9

Scored

1,1

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

54% Possession 46%

12 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 5

3 Offside 3

16 Free kicks against 7

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 17. · Vallecano 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	27	19	6	2	+43	63
2	Ath Madrid	28	16	8	4	+20	56
3	Real Madrid	28	17	3	8	+17	54
4	Getafe	27	12	9	6	+12	45
5	Alaves	28	12	8	8	+0	44
6	Sevilla	28	12	7	9	+11	43
7	Valencia	27	8	15	4	+7	39
8	Betis	27	11	6	10	-1	39
9	Ath Bilbao	28	8	13	7	-3	37
10	Sociedad	28	9	9	10	+0	36
11	Eibar	28	8	11	9	-2	35
12	Girona	28	8	10	10	-6	34
13	Espanol	28	9	7	12	-9	34
14	Leganes	28	8	9	11	-7	33
15	Levante	28	8	7	13	-11	31
16	Valladolid	28	7	8	13	-16	29
17	Villarreal	27	5	11	11	-6	26
18	Celta	28	6	7	15	-11	25
19	Vallecano	27	6	5	16	-19	23
20	Huesca	28	5	7	16	-19	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	14	11	2	1	+16	35
2	Barcelona	14	10	3	1	+26	33
3	Real Madrid	14	9	1	4	+13	28
4	Sevilla	13	8	3	2	+13	27
5	Eibar	15	7	5	3	+9	26
6	Getafe	13	8	1	4	+11	25
7	Ath Bilbao	15	6	7	2	+3	25
8	Espanol	14	8	1	5	+0	25
9	Alaves	13	6	6	1	+6	24
10	Leganes	14	6	6	2	+5	24
11	Betis	14	6	4	4	+1	22
12	Valencia	14	4	9	1	+8	21
13	Sociedad	14	4	5	5	+0	17
14	Celta	14	4	4	6	+0	16
15	Levante	13	4	3	6	-7	15
16	Huesca	14	3	4	7	-5	13
17	Vallecano	14	3	4	7	-9	13
18	Villarreal	14	2	6	6	-2	12
19	Girona	14	2	6	6	-8	12
20	Valladolid	13	3	3	7	-8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	13	9	3	1	+17	30
2	Real Madrid	14	8	2	4	+4	26
3	Girona	14	6	4	4	+2	22
4	Ath Madrid	14	5	6	3	+4	21
5	Getafe	14	4	8	2	+1	20
6	Alaves	15	6	2	7	-6	20
7	Sociedad	14	5	4	5	+0	19
8	Valencia	13	4	6	3	-1	18
9	Betis	13	5	2	6	-2	17
10	Valladolid	15	4	5	6	-8	17
11	Sevilla	15	4	4	7	-2	16
12	Levante	15	4	4	7	-4	16
13	Villarreal	13	3	5	5	-4	14
14	Ath Bilbao	13	2	6	5	-6	12
15	Vallecano	13	3	1	9	-10	10
16	Espanol	14	1	6	7	-9	9
17	Celta	14	2	3	9	-11	9
18	Eibar	13	1	6	6	-11	9
19	Leganes	14	2	3	9	-12	9
20	Huesca	14	2	3	9	-14	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.