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Primeira Liga

Referee: Vitor Ferreira

Belenenses

U T T T T

3–0

Full-time

Nacional

T T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

4,7

2,5

Scored

1,0

0,5

Conceded

3,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

-2,7

-1,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 24%

27%

21%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

48%

58%

Both score Ø 44%

45%

42%

Average goals

2,7

3,1

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,5

2,1

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

50% Possession 50%

9 Shots 18

5 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 6

4 Offside 3

18 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Belenenses 10. · Nacional 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	33	27	3	3	+69	84
2	Porto	33	26	4	3	+53	82
3	Sp Lisbon	33	23	5	5	+40	74
4	Sp Braga	33	20	4	9	+17	64
5	Moreirense	33	16	4	13	-3	52
6	Guimaraes	33	14	7	12	+10	49
7	Santa Clara	33	11	9	13	+1	42
8	Rio Ave	33	11	9	13	-4	42
9	Boavista	33	12	5	16	-7	41
10	Belenenses	33	9	13	11	-12	40
11	Portimonense	33	11	6	16	-13	39
12	Maritimo	33	12	3	18	-17	39
13	Vitoria Setubal	33	8	12	13	-9	36
14	Aves	33	10	6	17	-13	36
15	Tondela	33	8	8	17	-17	32
16	Chaves	33	8	8	17	-20	32
17	Nacional	33	7	7	19	-37	28
18	Feirense	33	2	11	20	-38	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	17	14	2	1	+25	44
2	Porto	16	14	0	2	+31	42
3	Benfica	16	13	2	1	+43	41
4	Sp Braga	16	12	1	3	+15	37
5	Guimaraes	17	10	4	3	+15	34
6	Boavista	17	10	1	6	+7	31
7	Portimonense	17	8	4	5	+5	28
8	Moreirense	16	8	3	5	+1	27
9	Maritimo	16	8	2	6	+1	26
10	Rio Ave	17	5	6	6	-2	21
11	Tondela	16	6	3	7	-5	21
12	Santa Clara	17	5	5	7	-2	20
13	Belenenses	16	5	5	6	-4	20
14	Aves	17	5	3	9	-3	18
15	Chaves	17	4	6	7	-3	18
16	Vitoria Setubal	16	4	6	6	-3	18
17	Nacional	17	5	3	9	-10	18
18	Feirense	16	1	6	9	-13	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	17	14	1	2	+26	43
2	Porto	17	12	4	1	+22	40
3	Sp Lisbon	16	9	3	4	+15	30
4	Sp Braga	17	8	3	6	+2	27
5	Moreirense	17	8	1	8	-4	25
6	Santa Clara	16	6	4	6	+3	22
7	Rio Ave	16	6	3	7	-2	21
8	Belenenses	17	4	8	5	-8	20
9	Vitoria Setubal	17	4	6	7	-6	18
10	Aves	16	5	3	8	-10	18
11	Guimaraes	16	4	3	9	-5	15
12	Chaves	16	4	2	10	-17	14
13	Maritimo	17	4	1	12	-18	13
14	Tondela	17	2	5	10	-12	11
15	Portimonense	16	3	2	11	-18	11
16	Boavista	16	2	4	10	-14	10
17	Nacional	16	2	4	10	-27	10
18	Feirense	17	1	5	11	-25	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.