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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Belenenses

U U T U U

1–3

Full-time

Rio Ave

U S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Rio Ave

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,3

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 31%

31%

Points per game

1,4

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

41%

59%

Both score Ø 55%

41%

69%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,1

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

62% Possession 38%

16 Shots 16

3 Shots on target 7

6 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 2

4 Offside 1

20 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Belenenses 7. · Rio Ave 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	29	23	3	3	+55	72
2	Porto	29	23	3	3	+44	72
3	Sp Lisbon	30	21	4	5	+31	67
4	Sp Braga	29	19	4	6	+21	61
5	Moreirense	29	15	4	10	+0	49
6	Guimaraes	30	13	6	11	+8	45
7	Belenenses	29	9	13	7	+4	40
8	Santa Clara	29	10	7	12	+0	37
9	Rio Ave	29	9	8	12	-6	35
10	Portimonense	30	9	6	15	-11	33
11	Aves	30	9	6	15	-11	33
12	Maritimo	29	10	3	16	-13	33
13	Vitoria Setubal	30	7	11	12	-7	32
14	Boavista	30	9	5	16	-14	32
15	Tondela	30	8	7	15	-13	31
16	Nacional	30	7	6	17	-30	27
17	Chaves	29	6	7	16	-23	25
18	Feirense	29	2	9	18	-35	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	15	13	1	1	+23	40
2	Sp Braga	15	12	1	2	+18	37
3	Porto	14	12	0	2	+26	36
4	Benfica	14	11	2	1	+33	35
5	Guimaraes	15	9	3	3	+11	30
6	Moreirense	14	8	3	3	+3	27
7	Boavista	15	8	1	6	+3	25
8	Portimonense	15	6	4	5	+3	22
9	Tondela	15	6	3	6	-3	21
10	Belenenses	14	5	5	4	+5	20
11	Rio Ave	15	5	5	5	-1	20
12	Maritimo	14	6	2	6	-2	20
13	Vitoria Setubal	15	4	6	5	+0	18
14	Santa Clara	15	5	3	7	-2	18
15	Nacional	16	5	3	8	-6	18
16	Aves	15	4	3	8	-5	15
17	Chaves	15	3	6	6	-5	15
18	Feirense	14	1	5	8	-11	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	15	12	1	2	+22	37
2	Porto	15	11	3	1	+18	36
3	Sp Lisbon	15	8	3	4	+8	27
4	Sp Braga	14	7	3	4	+3	24
5	Moreirense	15	7	1	7	-3	22
6	Belenenses	15	4	8	3	-1	20
7	Santa Clara	14	5	4	5	+2	19
8	Aves	15	5	3	7	-6	18
9	Guimaraes	15	4	3	8	-3	15
10	Rio Ave	14	4	3	7	-5	15
11	Vitoria Setubal	15	3	5	7	-7	14
12	Maritimo	15	4	1	10	-11	13
13	Portimonense	15	3	2	10	-14	11
14	Tondela	15	2	4	9	-10	10
15	Chaves	14	3	1	10	-18	10
16	Nacional	14	2	3	9	-24	9
17	Boavista	15	1	4	10	-17	7
18	Feirense	15	1	4	10	-24	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.