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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Vitoria Setubal

T U S S T

1–3

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vitoria Setubal Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

3,0

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 15/16 matches

Win Ø 42%

27%

56%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

20%

63%

Both score Ø 45%

20%

69%

Average goals

1,4

2,9

Scored

0,5

1,8

Conceded

0,9

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

42% Possession 58%

12 Shots 12

1 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 5

0 Offside 3

7 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Vitoria Setubal 11. · Sp Lisbon 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	17	16	0	1	+35	48
2	Porto	17	14	2	1	+29	44
3	Famalicao	17	10	3	4	+8	33
4	Sp Lisbon	16	9	2	5	+10	29
5	Rio Ave	17	7	4	6	+2	25
6	Guimaraes	16	5	7	4	+6	22
7	Sp Braga	16	6	3	7	+4	21
8	Tondela	16	5	5	6	-3	20
9	Gil Vicente	16	4	7	5	-2	19
10	Boavista	17	4	7	6	-3	19
11	Vitoria Setubal	15	4	7	4	-5	19
12	Maritimo	16	4	7	5	-7	19
13	Setubal	16	4	7	5	-7	19
14	Moreirense	17	4	6	7	-4	18
15	Santa Clara	17	4	6	7	-8	18
16	Portimonense	17	2	9	6	-9	15
17	Pacos Ferreira	17	4	3	10	-12	15
18	Belenenses	15	4	3	8	-16	15
19	Aves	17	2	0	15	-18	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	10	9	0	1	+22	27
2	Porto	8	8	0	0	+22	24
3	Famalicao	8	6	1	1	+11	19
4	Gil Vicente	9	3	6	0	+5	15
5	Guimaraes	8	4	2	2	+9	14
6	Moreirense	8	4	2	2	+3	14
7	Rio Ave	9	4	2	3	+3	14
8	Vitoria Setubal	8	3	5	0	+3	14
9	Setubal	9	3	5	1	+1	14
10	Sp Lisbon	7	4	0	3	+3	12
11	Sp Braga	7	3	2	2	+1	11
12	Maritimo	8	2	4	2	-1	10
13	Pacos Ferreira	9	3	1	5	-2	10
14	Boavista	9	2	4	3	-2	10
15	Santa Clara	10	2	3	5	-6	9
16	Portimonense	8	1	4	3	-3	7
17	Belenenses	7	2	1	4	-9	7
18	Aves	7	2	0	5	-2	6
19	Tondela	7	1	2	4	-4	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	7	7	0	0	+13	21
2	Porto	9	6	2	1	+7	20
3	Sp Lisbon	9	5	2	2	+7	17
4	Tondela	9	4	3	2	+1	15
5	Famalicao	9	4	2	3	-3	14
6	Rio Ave	8	3	2	3	-1	11
7	Sp Braga	9	3	1	5	+3	10
8	Boavista	8	2	3	3	-1	9
9	Santa Clara	7	2	3	2	-2	9
10	Maritimo	8	2	3	3	-6	9
11	Guimaraes	8	1	5	2	-3	8
12	Portimonense	9	1	5	3	-6	8
13	Belenenses	8	2	2	4	-7	8
14	Setubal	7	1	2	4	-8	5
15	Vitoria Setubal	7	1	2	4	-8	5
16	Pacos Ferreira	8	1	2	5	-10	5
17	Moreirense	9	0	4	5	-7	4
18	Gil Vicente	7	1	1	5	-7	4
19	Aves	10	0	0	10	-16	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.