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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Pedro Pinheiro

Rio Ave

T U U T S

1–0

Full-time

Vitoria Setubal

U T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rio Ave Vitoria Setubal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 0%

Both score Ø 17%

17%

Average goals

1,3

0,8

Scored

0,7

0,5

Conceded

0,7

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 11/10 matches

Win Ø 28%

36%

20%

Points per game

1,4

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 19%

27%

10%

Both score Ø 28%

45%

10%

Average goals

2,5

0,9

Scored

1,4

0,3

Conceded

1,2

0,6

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

57% Possession 43%

10 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 4

2 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Rio Ave 7. · Vitoria Setubal 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	11	10	0	1	+21	30
2	Porto	11	9	1	1	+20	28
3	Famalicao	10	7	2	1	+7	23
4	Sp Lisbon	10	5	2	3	+4	17
5	Guimaraes	10	4	4	2	+7	16
6	Tondela	11	4	4	3	+1	16
7	Rio Ave	11	4	3	4	+2	15
8	Boavista	11	3	6	2	+2	15
9	Santa Clara	11	3	5	3	-2	14
10	Gil Vicente	12	3	5	4	-3	14
11	Vitoria Setubal	10	2	6	2	-3	12
12	Sp Braga	11	3	3	5	-4	12
13	Setubal	11	2	6	3	-4	12
14	Moreirense	11	2	5	4	-2	11
15	Maritimo	11	2	5	4	-5	11
16	Belenenses	10	3	2	5	-8	11
17	Portimonense	11	1	5	5	-8	8
18	Pacos Ferreira	10	1	2	7	-11	5
19	Aves	11	1	0	10	-14	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	6	6	0	0	+17	18
2	Benfica	7	6	0	1	+13	18
3	Famalicao	4	4	0	0	+6	12
4	Guimaraes	5	3	2	0	+10	11
5	Gil Vicente	7	2	5	0	+3	11
6	Setubal	6	2	4	0	+2	10
7	Vitoria Setubal	6	2	4	0	+2	10
8	Boavista	5	2	3	0	+3	9
9	Santa Clara	6	2	3	1	+1	9
10	Moreirense	5	2	2	1	+3	8
11	Rio Ave	6	2	2	2	+2	8
12	Sp Braga	5	2	2	1	+0	8
13	Sp Lisbon	4	2	0	2	+1	6
14	Belenenses	5	2	0	3	-3	6
15	Maritimo	5	1	2	2	-2	5
16	Pacos Ferreira	5	1	1	3	-2	4
17	Tondela	5	1	1	3	-3	4
18	Aves	5	1	0	4	-2	3
19	Portimonense	5	0	2	3	-4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+8	12
2	Tondela	6	3	3	0	+4	12
3	Sp Lisbon	6	3	2	1	+3	11
4	Famalicao	6	3	2	1	+1	11
5	Porto	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	Rio Ave	5	2	1	2	+0	7
7	Boavista	6	1	3	2	-1	6
8	Maritimo	6	1	3	2	-3	6
9	Portimonense	6	1	3	2	-4	6
10	Guimaraes	5	1	2	2	-3	5
11	Santa Clara	5	1	2	2	-3	5
12	Belenenses	5	1	2	2	-5	5
13	Sp Braga	6	1	1	4	-4	4
14	Moreirense	6	0	3	3	-5	3
15	Gil Vicente	5	1	0	4	-6	3
16	Vitoria Setubal	4	0	2	2	-5	2
17	Setubal	5	0	2	3	-6	2
18	Pacos Ferreira	5	0	1	4	-9	1
19	Aves	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.