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Premier League

Referee: A Marriner

Burnley

S U U T U

1–1

Full-time

Arsenal

T T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 27/26 matches

Win Ø 34%

26%

42%

Points per game

1,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

30%

54%

Both score Ø 36%

30%

42%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

41% Possession 59%

9 Shots 15

5 Shots on target 3

0 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 4

2 Offside 2

5 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 15. · Arsenal 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	27	20	5	2	+39	65
2	Man United	27	14	9	4	+21	51
3	Leicester	27	15	5	7	+15	50
4	Chelsea	27	13	8	6	+17	47
5	Everton	26	14	4	8	+6	46
6	West Ham	26	13	6	7	+9	45
7	Liverpool	27	12	7	8	+12	43
8	Tottenham	26	12	6	8	+15	42
9	Aston Villa	25	12	3	10	+11	39
10	Arsenal	26	11	4	11	+7	37
11	Leeds	26	11	2	13	-1	35
12	Wolves	27	9	7	11	-9	34
13	Crystal Palace	27	9	7	11	-14	34
14	Southampton	26	8	6	12	-13	30
15	Burnley	27	7	8	12	-16	29
16	Brighton	26	5	11	10	-7	26
17	Newcastle	26	7	5	14	-17	26
18	Fulham	27	4	11	12	-12	23
19	West Brom	27	3	8	16	-36	17
20	Sheffield United	27	4	2	21	-27	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	14	11	2	1	+22	35
2	West Ham	13	7	3	3	+6	24
3	Chelsea	13	6	5	2	+12	23
4	Liverpool	14	7	2	5	+5	23
5	Man United	13	6	3	4	+9	21
6	Tottenham	13	6	3	4	+8	21
7	Leicester	13	6	1	6	+1	19
8	Wolves	13	5	4	4	+1	19
9	Arsenal	13	5	3	5	+2	18
10	Leeds	13	5	2	6	+2	17
11	Southampton	13	5	2	6	+1	17
12	Everton	13	5	2	6	-2	17
13	Burnley	14	4	5	5	-4	17
14	Crystal Palace	14	4	5	5	-7	17
15	Aston Villa	11	5	1	5	+4	16
16	Newcastle	13	4	3	6	-6	15
17	Brighton	13	1	7	5	-5	10
18	Sheffield United	14	3	1	10	-10	10
19	Fulham	14	2	4	8	-10	10
20	West Brom	14	2	4	8	-24	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	14	9	4	1	+14	31
2	Man City	13	9	3	1	+17	30
3	Man United	14	8	6	0	+12	30
4	Everton	13	9	2	2	+8	29
5	Chelsea	14	7	3	4	+5	24
6	Aston Villa	14	7	2	5	+7	23
7	Tottenham	13	6	3	4	+7	21
8	West Ham	13	6	3	4	+3	21
9	Liverpool	13	5	5	3	+7	20
10	Arsenal	13	6	1	6	+5	19
11	Leeds	13	6	0	7	-3	18
12	Crystal Palace	13	5	2	6	-7	17
13	Brighton	13	4	4	5	-2	16
14	Wolves	14	4	3	7	-10	15
15	Fulham	13	2	7	4	-2	13
16	Southampton	13	3	4	6	-14	13
17	Burnley	13	3	3	7	-12	12
18	Newcastle	13	3	2	8	-11	11
19	West Brom	13	1	4	8	-12	7
20	Sheffield United	13	1	1	11	-17	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.