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Championship

Referee: T Harrington

Nott'm Forest

T T T S U

1–1

Full-time

Derby

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

1,8

2,0

Scored

0,5

0,3

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,3

This season — Championship · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

1,8

2,0

Scored

0,5

0,3

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

59% Possession 41%

12 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 5

2 Offside 3

18 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 21. · Derby 23. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Reading	6	5	1	0	+7	16
2	Bristol City	6	4	1	1	+5	13
3	Watford	6	4	1	1	+4	13
4	Bournemouth	6	3	3	0	+4	12
5	Swansea	6	3	2	1	+3	11
6	Millwall	6	3	2	1	+3	11
7	Brentford	6	3	1	2	+3	10
8	Norwich	6	3	1	2	+1	10
9	Huddersfield	6	3	1	2	-1	10
10	Stoke	6	2	3	1	+1	9
11	Middlesbrough	6	2	3	1	+1	9
12	Luton	6	3	0	3	-1	9
13	Cardiff	6	2	2	2	+0	8
14	Sheffield Weds	6	2	2	2	+0	8
15	Blackburn	6	2	1	3	+5	7
16	Preston	6	2	1	3	+1	7
17	QPR	6	1	3	2	-1	6
18	Rotherham	6	1	3	2	-1	6
19	Birmingham	6	1	3	2	-1	6
20	Coventry	6	1	2	3	-4	5
21	Nott'm Forest	6	1	1	4	-5	4
22	Barnsley	6	0	3	3	-4	3
23	Derby	6	1	0	5	-8	3
24	Wycombe	6	0	0	6	-12	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	3	3	0	0	+4	9
2	Reading	3	3	0	0	+4	9
3	Bournemouth	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Brentford	3	2	0	1	+3	6
5	Bristol City	3	2	0	1	+2	6
6	Luton	3	2	0	1	+1	6
7	Huddersfield	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	Millwall	3	1	2	0	+2	5
9	Middlesbrough	3	1	2	0	+1	5
10	Blackburn	3	1	1	1	+4	4
11	Norwich	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	QPR	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Swansea	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Birmingham	3	1	1	1	+0	4
15	Coventry	3	1	1	1	-1	4
16	Barnsley	3	0	2	1	-1	2
17	Sheffield Weds	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Stoke	3	0	2	1	-2	2
19	Rotherham	3	0	1	2	-2	1
20	Nott'm Forest	3	0	1	2	-3	1
21	Cardiff	3	0	1	2	-3	1
22	Preston	3	0	0	3	-3	0
23	Wycombe	3	0	0	3	-4	0
24	Derby	3	0	0	3	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	3	2	1	0	+4	7
2	Bristol City	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	Swansea	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	Reading	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Cardiff	3	2	1	0	+3	7
6	Stoke	3	2	1	0	+3	7
7	Millwall	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	Norwich	3	2	0	1	+1	6
9	Sheffield Weds	3	2	0	1	+1	6
10	Bournemouth	3	1	2	0	+2	5
11	Rotherham	3	1	2	0	+1	5
12	Brentford	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Middlesbrough	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Watford	3	1	1	1	+0	4
15	Huddersfield	3	1	1	1	-2	4
16	Blackburn	3	1	0	2	+1	3
17	Derby	3	1	0	2	-1	3
18	Luton	3	1	0	2	-2	3
19	Nott'm Forest	3	1	0	2	-2	3
20	QPR	3	0	2	1	-1	2
21	Birmingham	3	0	2	1	-1	2
22	Barnsley	3	0	1	2	-3	1
23	Coventry	3	0	1	2	-3	1
24	Wycombe	3	0	0	3	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.