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Primeira Liga

Referee: Vitor Ferreira

Tondela

S U T T U

1–0

Full-time

Portimonense

S U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Portimonense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 13%

25%

Points per game

0,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

50%

25%

Both score Ø 63%

75%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

0,8

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

50% Possession 50%

8 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 6

1 Offside 6

10 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 16. · Portimonense 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+10	12
2	Porto	4	2	1	1	+6	7
3	Sp Lisbon	3	2	1	0	+4	7
4	Santa Clara	4	2	1	1	+2	7
5	Guimaraes	4	2	1	1	+1	7
6	Sp Braga	4	2	0	2	+2	6
7	Maritimo	4	2	0	2	-1	6
8	Gil Vicente	3	1	2	0	+1	5
9	Nacional	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Moreirense	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Belenenses	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	Famalicao	4	1	2	1	-3	5
13	Portimonense	4	1	1	2	-2	4
14	Pacos Ferreira	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Rio Ave	4	0	3	1	-3	3
16	Tondela	4	0	2	2	-5	2
17	Boavista	4	0	2	2	-6	2
18	Farense	4	0	1	3	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Moreirense	2	1	1	0	+2	4
3	Santa Clara	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Gil Vicente	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Porto	2	1	0	1	+1	3
6	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
7	Sp Braga	2	1	0	1	+0	3
8	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Pacos Ferreira	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	Nacional	2	0	2	0	+0	2
11	Sp Lisbon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Farense	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Belenenses	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Portimonense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
15	Rio Ave	2	0	1	1	-3	1
16	Famalicao	2	0	1	1	-4	1
17	Tondela	2	0	1	1	-4	1
18	Boavista	2	0	0	2	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Porto	2	1	1	0	+5	4
4	Famalicao	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Guimaraes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Belenenses	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Sp Braga	2	1	0	1	+2	3
8	Portimonense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Santa Clara	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Nacional	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Boavista	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Rio Ave	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Gil Vicente	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Tondela	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Pacos Ferreira	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Farense	2	0	0	2	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.