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2. Bundesliga

Referee: Patrick Ittrich

Dresden

S T U U T

3–3

Full-time

Karlsruhe

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dresden Karlsruhe

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,0

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 36%

14%

57%

Points per game

0,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

71%

43%

Both score Ø 50%

71%

29%

Average goals

3,1

2,0

Scored

1,3

1,1

Conceded

1,9

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

55% Possession 45%

13 Shots 22

4 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 8

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 7

1 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dresden 16. · Karlsruhe 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Darmstadt	8	5	2	1	+8	+0.9	17
2	Paderborn	8	5	2	1	+6	+2.8	17
3	Elversberg	7	5	1	1	+6	-2.9	16
4	Hannover	7	5	1	1	+5	+2.5	16
5	Kaiserslautern	8	5	0	3	+6	-0.2	15
6	Schalke 04	7	5	0	2	+4	+0.8	15
7	Karlsruhe	7	4	2	1	+2	+0.3	14
8	Hertha	8	3	2	3	+2	-1.9	11
9	Bielefeld	7	3	1	3	+3	+1.7	10
10	Holstein Kiel	8	3	1	4	+1	+0.1	10
11	Preußen Münster	8	3	1	4	-2	-2.5	10
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	8	3	1	4	-7	-3.5	10
13	Greuther Furth	7	3	0	4	-3	-0.2	9
14	Nurnberg	8	2	1	5	-5	+0.1	7
15	Braunschweig	8	2	1	5	-7	-1.1	7
16	Dresden	7	1	2	4	-4	+1.8	5
17	Bochum	8	1	0	7	-7	+1.8	3
18	Magdeburg	7	1	0	6	-8	-0.5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Kaiserslautern	4	4	0	0	+7	+1.0	12
2	Karlsruhe	4	4	0	0	+5	+0.1	12
3	Darmstadt	4	3	1	0	+6	+0.6	10
4	Elversberg	4	3	1	0	+3	-0.4	10
5	Paderborn	4	3	0	1	+3	+0.4	9
6	Hannover	4	3	0	1	+2	+1.2	9
7	Schalke 04	4	3	0	1	+2	+1.7	9
8	Preußen Münster	4	2	1	1	+2	-2.4	7
9	Bielefeld	4	2	0	2	+3	+2.2	6
10	Holstein Kiel	4	1	1	2	+0	+0.5	4
11	Braunschweig	4	1	1	2	-3	+0.3	4
12	Hertha	4	1	1	2	-3	-0.2	4
13	Nurnberg	4	1	1	2	-3	-0.4	4
14	Bochum	3	1	0	2	+0	+2.4	3
15	Greuther Furth	3	1	0	2	-4	+0.1	3
16	Dresden	3	0	1	2	-2	+1.8	1
17	Fortuna Dusseldorf	4	0	1	3	-6	-1.3	1
18	Magdeburg	3	0	0	3	-4	+1.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Fortuna Dusseldorf	4	3	0	1	-1	-2.2	9
2	Paderborn	4	2	2	0	+3	+2.4	8
3	Hertha	4	2	1	1	+5	-1.7	7
4	Hannover	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.3	7
5	Darmstadt	4	2	1	1	+2	+0.4	7
6	Elversberg	3	2	0	1	+3	-2.4	6
7	Schalke 04	3	2	0	1	+2	-1.0	6
8	Greuther Furth	4	2	0	2	+1	-0.3	6
9	Holstein Kiel	4	2	0	2	+1	-0.4	6
10	Bielefeld	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.5	4
11	Dresden	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.1	4
12	Kaiserslautern	4	1	0	3	-1	-1.2	3
13	Nurnberg	4	1	0	3	-2	+0.4	3
14	Preußen Münster	4	1	0	3	-4	-0.1	3
15	Magdeburg	4	1	0	3	-4	-1.8	3
16	Braunschweig	4	1	0	3	-4	-1.3	3
17	Karlsruhe	3	0	2	1	-3	+0.2	2
18	Bochum	5	0	0	5	-7	-0.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.