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Championship

Referee: J Smith

QPR

T T T T U

1–0

Full-time

Derby

T U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

QPR Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

2,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,5

This season — Championship · 44/44 matches

Win Ø 36%

39%

32%

Points per game

1,4

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

57%

41%

Both score Ø 57%

61%

52%

Average goals

2,7

2,1

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,4

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

44% Possession 56%

14 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 7

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 5

2 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match QPR 14. · Derby 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	43	27	8	8	+60	89
2	Bournemouth	42	21	13	8	+27	76
3	Huddersfield	42	20	13	9	+16	73
4	Luton	42	20	11	11	+18	71
5	Sheffield United	42	20	9	13	+17	69
6	Middlesbrough	44	20	9	15	+14	69
7	Coventry	44	19	11	14	+11	68
8	Blackburn	44	18	12	14	+12	66
9	West Brom	44	18	12	14	+10	66
10	Nott'm Forest	38	19	8	11	+24	65
11	Swansea	43	18	10	15	-1	64
12	Preston	44	16	16	12	-1	64
13	Millwall	43	16	14	13	+4	62
14	QPR	44	17	9	18	-1	60
15	Stoke	44	16	11	17	+7	59
16	Blackpool	42	15	11	16	-2	56
17	Derby	44	14	13	17	-6	55
18	Cardiff	43	15	8	20	-11	53
19	Bristol City	44	14	10	20	-19	52
20	Hull	44	14	8	22	-8	50
21	Reading	44	14	8	22	-26	50
22	Birmingham	44	11	13	20	-22	46
23	Peterboro	43	8	10	25	-45	34
24	Barnsley	43	6	13	24	-31	31
25	Peterborough	42	7	10	25	-47	31

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Blackburn	22	13	5	4	+18	44
2	Fulham	21	13	4	4	+28	43
3	West Brom	22	12	7	3	+16	43
4	Derby	22	12	7	3	+12	43
5	Luton	21	12	5	4	+17	41
6	Middlesbrough	22	13	2	7	+11	41
7	Sheffield United	21	12	4	5	+22	40
8	Bournemouth	21	11	7	3	+18	40
9	Nott'm Forest	21	12	3	6	+15	39
10	Huddersfield	20	11	6	3	+12	39
11	Millwall	21	11	6	4	+12	39
12	Coventry	22	11	5	6	+13	38
13	Preston	22	9	10	3	+6	37
14	Swansea	21	10	6	5	+7	36
15	Blackpool	22	11	3	8	+2	36
16	Stoke	22	10	4	8	+8	34
17	QPR	22	9	6	7	+4	33
18	Bristol City	22	7	8	7	-1	29
19	Reading	22	8	4	10	-8	28
20	Cardiff	22	8	3	11	-2	27
21	Birmingham	22	7	6	9	-5	27
22	Barnsley	21	5	7	9	-7	22
23	Peterboro	21	5	7	9	-10	22
24	Peterborough	21	5	7	9	-10	22
25	Hull	22	6	3	13	-10	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	22	14	4	4	+32	46
2	Bournemouth	21	10	6	5	+9	36
3	Huddersfield	22	9	7	6	+4	34
4	Luton	21	8	6	7	+1	30
5	Coventry	22	8	6	8	-2	30
6	Hull	22	8	5	9	+2	29
7	Sheffield United	21	8	5	8	-5	29
8	Middlesbrough	22	7	7	8	+3	28
9	Swansea	22	8	4	10	-8	28
10	QPR	22	8	3	11	-5	27
11	Preston	22	7	6	9	-7	27
12	Nott'm Forest	17	7	5	5	+9	26
13	Cardiff	21	7	5	9	-9	26
14	Stoke	22	6	7	9	-1	25
15	West Brom	22	6	5	11	-6	23
16	Millwall	22	5	8	9	-8	23
17	Bristol City	22	7	2	13	-18	23
18	Blackburn	22	5	7	10	-6	22
19	Reading	22	6	4	12	-18	22
20	Blackpool	20	4	8	8	-4	20
21	Birmingham	22	4	7	11	-17	19
22	Derby	22	2	6	14	-18	12
23	Peterboro	22	3	3	16	-35	12
24	Barnsley	22	1	6	15	-24	9
25	Peterborough	21	2	3	16	-37	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.