Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Empoli
Salernitana
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 4–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Empoli
|
17 | 9 | 7 | 1 | +15 | 34 |
| 2 |
Cittadella
|
17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | +16 | 33 |
| 3 |
Monza
|
18 | 8 | 7 | 3 | +13 | 31 |
| 4 |
Salernitana
|
17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 31 |
| 5 |
Lecce
|
18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | +10 | 29 |
| 6 |
Spal
|
17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | +7 | 29 |
| 7 |
Chievo
|
16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | +8 | 27 |
| 8 | Pordenone | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | +7 | 27 |
| 9 |
Frosinone
|
17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | +1 | 26 |
| 10 |
Venezia
|
18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | +3 | 25 |
| 11 |
Pisa
|
17 | 5 | 8 | 4 | -5 | 23 |
| 12 |
Brescia
|
18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | -3 | 21 |
| 13 |
Vicenza
|
17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | -1 | 20 |
| 14 |
Cremonese
|
18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | -6 | 18 |
| 15 |
Reggina
|
18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -9 | 17 |
| 16 |
Cosenza
|
18 | 2 | 10 | 6 | -3 | 16 |
| 17 |
Pescara
|
18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -15 | 16 |
| 18 |
Reggiana
|
17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -14 | 15 |
| 19 |
Virtus Entella
|
18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -16 | 14 |
| 20 |
Ascoli
|
18 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -12 | 13 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Cosenza
Empoli
Empoli
Ascoli
Brescia
Empoli
Empoli
Reggiana
Chievo
Empoli
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.