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Serie B

Referee: Gianluca Manganiello

Sudtirol

T U U U T

2–1

Full-time

Spezia

S S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sudtirol Spezia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,0

2,5

Scored

0,3

1,0

Conceded

0,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 17%

11%

22%

Points per game

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

28%

39%

Both score Ø 59%

61%

56%

Average goals

2,1

2,3

Scored

0,9

Conceded

1,2

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,38 xG 1,85

38% Possession 62%

10 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 4

2 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sudtirol 17. · Spezia 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	18	11	5	2	+18	+5.5	38
2	Monza	18	11	4	3	+13	+6.7	37
3	Venezia	18	10	5	3	+17	+13.4	35
4	Palermo	18	9	6	3	+15	+2.2	33
5	Catanzaro	18	8	7	3	+7	+0.6	31
6	Cesena	18	9	4	5	+5	+3.4	31
7	Modena	18	8	5	5	+11	+3.7	29
8	Juve Stabia	18	6	8	4	-1	-2.2	26
9	Empoli	18	6	6	6	+1	+0.9	24
10	Padova	18	5	7	6	-3	-1.9	22
11	Avellino	18	5	7	6	-9	-6.4	22
12	Reggiana	18	5	5	8	-3	-2.2	20
13	Carrarese	18	4	8	6	-5	-7.8	20
14	Sampdoria	18	4	5	9	-7	+0.1	17
15	Spezia	18	4	5	9	-8	+0.2	17
16	Bari	18	3	8	7	-12	-3.2	17
17	Sudtirol	18	2	10	6	-5	-2.9	16
18	Virtus Entella	18	3	7	8	-10	-5.3	16
19	Mantova	18	4	3	11	-12	-2.2	15
20	Pescara	18	2	7	9	-12	-2.5	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	9	8	0	1	+16	+5.1	24
2	Monza	9	7	1	1	+9	+3.5	22
3	Palermo	10	6	3	1	+12	+4.5	21
4	Juve Stabia	9	5	4	0	+7	+0.8	19
5	Catanzaro	10	5	4	1	+5	+1.6	19
6	Frosinone	8	5	2	1	+11	+3.1	17
7	Modena	10	5	2	3	+7	-1.2	17
8	Empoli	10	3	6	1	+6	+2.8	15
9	Cesena	8	4	3	1	+5	+4.6	15
10	Virtus Entella	9	3	5	1	+3	-1.5	14
11	Sampdoria	9	4	2	3	+2	+2.5	14
12	Carrarese	9	3	4	2	+3	-0.5	13
13	Bari	9	3	4	2	+1	-1.6	13
14	Reggiana	8	3	3	2	+3	-1.5	12
15	Avellino	8	3	3	2	-3	-4.2	12
16	Pescara	10	2	4	4	-1	-0.9	10
17	Mantova	9	3	1	5	-5	+3.0	10
18	Spezia	10	2	3	5	-6	-1.7	9
19	Sudtirol	8	2	2	4	-1	-1.3	8
20	Padova	8	1	5	2	-2	-2.0	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	10	6	3	1	+7	+2.4	21
2	Cesena	10	5	1	4	+0	-1.2	16
3	Monza	9	4	3	2	+4	+3.1	15
4	Padova	10	4	2	4	-1	+0.1	14
5	Modena	8	3	3	2	+4	+4.9	12
6	Palermo	8	3	3	2	+3	-2.2	12
7	Catanzaro	8	3	3	2	+2	-1.0	12
8	Venezia	9	2	5	2	+1	+8.3	11
9	Avellino	10	2	4	4	-6	-2.2	10
10	Empoli	8	3	0	5	-5	-1.9	9
11	Spezia	8	2	2	4	-2	+1.8	8
12	Sudtirol	10	0	8	2	-4	-1.5	8
13	Reggiana	10	2	2	6	-6	-0.7	8
14	Carrarese	9	1	4	4	-8	-7.3	7
15	Juve Stabia	9	1	4	4	-8	-3.0	7
16	Mantova	9	1	2	6	-7	-5.2	5
17	Bari	9	0	4	5	-13	-1.6	4
18	Sampdoria	9	0	3	6	-9	-2.4	3
19	Pescara	8	0	3	5	-11	-1.6	3
20	Virtus Entella	9	0	2	7	-13	-3.8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.