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Eredivisie

Referee: J Kooij

PSV Eindhoven

S T S S S

5–1

Full-time

Excelsior

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

PSV Eindhoven Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,8

2,7

Scored

2,7

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 17/16 matches

Win Ø 63%

88%

38%

Points per game

2,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

76%

63%

Both score Ø 61%

65%

56%

Average goals

4,3

2,7

Scored

3,1

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–1

2,30 xG 0,50

50% Possession 50%

16 Shots 8

8 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 4

4 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match PSV Eindhoven 1. · Excelsior 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	17	15	1	1	+31	+14.6	46
2	Feyenoord	17	11	2	4	+21	+20.2	35
3	Nijmegen	17	8	5	4	+14	+5.6	29
4	AZ Alkmaar	17	8	4	5	+4	+13.6	28
5	Ajax	16	7	6	3	+8	+0.4	27
6	Groningen	16	8	3	5	+5	+9.5	27
7	Twente	18	6	8	4	+5	+18.3	26
8	Sparta Rotterdam	17	7	2	8	-13	-4.9	23
9	Utrecht	16	6	4	6	+5	-2.9	22
10	Heerenveen	16	6	4	6	+3	+12.6	22
11	For Sittard	17	6	3	8	-4	-7.2	21
12	Zwolle	18	5	5	8	-17	-16.1	20
13	Go Ahead Eagles	17	4	7	6	-3	-10.4	19
14	Excelsior	16	6	1	9	-11	-10.5	19
15	Telstar	17	3	6	8	-7	-7.6	15
16	Volendam	18	3	5	10	-13	-16.4	14
17	Heracles	17	4	2	11	-18	-12.1	14
18	NAC Breda	17	3	4	10	-10	-6.7	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	8	6	1	1	+13	+9.5	19
2	Feyenoord	9	6	1	2	+10	+11.7	19
3	Nijmegen	8	5	2	1	+11	+6.4	17
4	For Sittard	9	5	2	2	+3	+1.9	17
5	Utrecht	8	5	1	2	+9	+2.8	16
6	Ajax	8	5	1	2	+6	+4.6	16
7	AZ Alkmaar	8	4	3	1	+4	+7.1	15
8	Twente	9	4	3	2	+2	+11.6	15
9	Groningen	8	4	2	2	+7	+7.2	14
10	Go Ahead Eagles	8	3	4	1	+3	-0.3	13
11	Zwolle	8	4	1	3	-4	-2.2	13
12	Volendam	9	3	3	3	+2	-1.3	12
13	Heerenveen	8	3	3	2	+1	+8.8	12
14	Excelsior	9	4	0	5	-2	-5.5	12
15	NAC Breda	9	3	2	4	-1	+2.9	11
16	Sparta Rotterdam	9	3	2	4	-9	-3.8	11
17	Heracles	8	3	1	4	-3	-1.6	10
18	Telstar	9	1	4	4	-4	-0.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	9	9	0	0	+18	+5.1	27
2	Feyenoord	8	5	1	2	+11	+8.5	16
3	AZ Alkmaar	9	4	1	4	+0	+6.6	13
4	Groningen	8	4	1	3	-2	+2.3	13
5	Nijmegen	9	3	3	3	+3	-0.8	12
6	Sparta Rotterdam	8	4	0	4	-4	-1.0	12
7	Twente	9	2	5	2	+3	+6.7	11
8	Ajax	8	2	5	1	+2	-4.2	11
9	Heerenveen	8	3	1	4	+2	+3.8	10
10	Telstar	8	2	2	4	-3	-7.6	8
11	Excelsior	7	2	1	4	-9	-5.0	7
12	Zwolle	10	1	4	5	-13	-13.9	7
13	Utrecht	8	1	3	4	-4	-5.8	6
14	Go Ahead Eagles	9	1	3	5	-6	-10.1	6
15	For Sittard	8	1	1	6	-7	-9.1	4
16	Heracles	9	1	1	7	-15	-10.5	4
17	NAC Breda	8	0	2	6	-9	-9.6	2
18	Volendam	9	0	2	7	-15	-15.1	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.