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Serie B
Referee: M Marcenaro
Empoli
U U U T T
2–2
Full-time
Mantova
T S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Empoli Mantova
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
0%
33%
Points per game
0,5
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 75%
100%
50%
Average goals
3,2
2,2
Scored
1,3
1,0
Conceded
1,8
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,5
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Serie B · 29/29 matches
Win Ø 26%
24%
28%
Points per game
1,1
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
52%
48%
Both score Ø 59%
62%
55%
Average goals
2,7
2,6
Scored
1,2
1,0
Conceded
1,4
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

2,33 xG 1,24
59% Possession 41%
18 Shots 13
8 Shots on target 5
6 Blocked shots 1
3 Goalkeeper saves 5
9 Corners 4
3 Offside 2
17 Free kicks against 17
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Empoli 13. · Mantova 16.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Venezia 29 19 6 4 +35 +26.1 63
2 Monza 29 18 6 5 +21 +12.0 60
3 Frosinone 29 16 10 3 +27 +8.1 58
4 Palermo 29 16 9 4 +27 +9.0 57
5 Catanzaro 29 13 10 6 +11 +1.8 49
6 Modena 30 13 8 9 +16 +9.6 47
7 Juve Stabia 29 9 13 7 -2 +1.7 40
8 Cesena 29 11 6 12 -5 +3.9 39
9 Sudtirol 29 8 13 8 +2 -2.6 37
10 Padova 29 8 10 11 -6 -6.9 34
11 Avellino 29 8 9 12 -15 -14.7 33
12 Carrarese 29 7 11 11 -6 -8.8 32
13 Empoli 29 7 10 12 -6 -0.1 31
14 Virtus Entella 29 7 10 12 -13 -11.2 31
15 Sampdoria 29 7 9 13 -11 -0.3 30
16 Mantova 29 8 6 15 -14 +0.5 30
17 Spezia 30 7 8 15 -13 -1.5 29
18 Reggiana 29 7 8 14 -13 -6.7 29
19 Bari 29 6 10 13 -19 -16.9 28
20 Pescara 29 5 10 14 -16 -3.2 25

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

21. Dec -25 Mantova – Empoli 0–1

Match report

Empoli Mantova
21′
D. Bragantini 0–1
S. Trimboli
37′
S. Cella 0–2
Luca Magnino 🟨
44′
Half-time 0–2
Rareș Ilie 🟨
46′
M. Nasti 🔁
↦ R. Ilie
46′
B. Moruzzi 🔁
↦ N. Obaretin
46′
46′
🔁 T. Goncalves
↦ F. Benaissa-Yahia
49′
🟨 Davide Bragantini
1–2 S. Shpendi
S. Elia
50′
57′
🔁 T. Marras
↦ D. Bragantini
57′
🔁 M. Caprini
↦ N. Buso
67′
🔁 D. Wieser
↦ L. Mancuso
E. Saporiti 🔁
↦ J. Ceesay
72′
T. Ebuehi 🔁
↦ A. Candela
72′
N. Haas 🔁
↦ L. Magnino
80′
84′
🟨 Francesco Bardi
2–2 E. Saporiti
S. Elia
84′
88′
🔁 T. Maggioni
↦ N. Radaelli
Marco Nasti 🟨
96′
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Empoli

4-4-1-1
21 A. Fulignati G
26 A. Candela D
34 G. Guarino D
20 M. Lovato D
5 N. Obaretin D
15 J. Ceesay M
8 L. Magnino M
14 G. Yepes M
7 S. Elia M
10 R. Ilie F
11 S. Shpendi F
Bench (12)
1 S. Perisan
2 M. Curto
17 D. Fila
70 E. Saporiti
19 M. Nasti
4 S. Romagnoli
24 T. Ebuehi
32 N. Haas
6 D. Degli Innocenti
25 L. Ignacchiti
27 B. Moruzzi
77 B. Popov

Coach: Fabio Caserta

Mantova

3-4-2-1
24 F. Bardi G
13 A. Meroni D
29 S. Cella D
27 A. Castellini D
17 N. Radaelli M
21 S. Trimboli M
80 R. Kouda M
50 F. Benaissa-Yahia M
30 D. Bragantini F
77 N. Buso F
9 L. Mancuso F
Bench (12)
34 A. Vukovic
18 C. Falletti
7 D. Mensah
96 T. Maggioni
15 T. Goncalves
10 D. Wieser
20 J. Ligue
23 T. Marras
5 K. Chrysopoulos
3 A. Dembele
36 F. Paoletti
28 M. Caprini

Coach: Francesco Modesto

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,04
U ✓
3,30
B
3,35
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,90
U2,5
1,80
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M Marcenaro · 68 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,6 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,28 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.