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Serie B

Referee: D Doveri

Monza

S S S S T

3–0

Full-time

Palermo

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monza Palermo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

1,7

2,2

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 59%

62%

55%

Points per game

2,1

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

48%

Both score Ø 47%

52%

41%

Average goals

2,4

Scored

1,6

1,7

Conceded

0,9

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,31 xG 1,01

42% Possession 58%

7 Shots 19

3 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 9

5 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 10

4 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Monza 2. · Palermo 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	29	19	6	4	+35	+26.1	63
2	Monza	29	18	6	5	+21	+12.0	60
3	Frosinone	30	16	11	3	+27	+7.5	59
4	Palermo	29	16	9	4	+27	+9.0	57
5	Catanzaro	30	14	10	6	+13	+1.9	52
6	Modena	30	13	8	9	+16	+9.6	47
7	Juve Stabia	30	9	14	7	-2	+1.5	41
8	Cesena	30	11	7	12	-5	+4.4	40
9	Sudtirol	29	8	13	8	+2	-2.6	37
10	Padova	30	8	10	12	-8	-6.9	34
11	Carrarese	30	7	12	11	-6	-8.5	33
12	Avellino	29	8	9	12	-15	-14.7	33
13	Empoli	30	7	11	12	-6	+1.0	32
14	Virtus Entella	29	7	10	12	-13	-11.2	31
15	Mantova	30	8	7	15	-14	-0.6	31
16	Bari	30	7	10	13	-16	-17.0	31
17	Sampdoria	29	7	9	13	-11	-0.3	30
18	Spezia	30	7	8	15	-13	-1.5	29
19	Reggiana	30	7	8	15	-16	-6.5	29
20	Pescara	29	5	10	14	-16	-3.2	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	15	13	0	2	+24	+13.8	39
2	Palermo	15	11	3	1	+21	+6.2	36
3	Monza	14	11	2	1	+16	+9.5	35
4	Catanzaro	15	8	6	1	+10	+2.7	30
5	Frosinone	14	8	4	2	+16	+5.2	28
6	Juve Stabia	15	6	8	1	+7	+3.5	26
7	Modena	16	7	4	5	+10	+1.5	25
8	Virtus Entella	14	6	6	2	+5	-3.6	24
9	Sampdoria	14	6	4	4	+2	+3.6	22
10	Avellino	15	6	4	5	-3	-6.9	22
11	Carrarese	15	5	6	4	+5	+1.6	21
12	Mantova	15	6	3	6	-4	+2.7	21
13	Bari	15	5	5	5	+0	-7.9	20
14	Empoli	16	3	10	3	+4	+5.4	19
15	Sudtirol	14	5	4	5	+3	-3.0	19
16	Cesena	15	5	4	6	-2	+5.1	19
17	Pescara	15	4	5	6	+0	-0.6	17
18	Reggiana	14	4	5	5	-3	-1.9	17
19	Padova	15	3	7	5	-3	-4.8	16
20	Spezia	15	4	4	7	-6	-0.4	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	16	8	7	1	+11	+2.3	31
2	Monza	15	7	4	4	+5	+2.5	25
3	Venezia	14	6	6	2	+11	+12.3	24
4	Modena	14	6	4	4	+6	+8.1	22
5	Catanzaro	15	6	4	5	+3	-0.8	22
6	Palermo	14	5	6	3	+6	+2.8	21
7	Cesena	15	6	3	6	-3	-0.7	21
8	Sudtirol	15	3	9	3	-1	+0.5	18
9	Padova	15	5	3	7	-5	-2.1	18
10	Juve Stabia	15	3	6	6	-9	-2.0	15
11	Spezia	15	3	4	8	-7	-1.1	13
12	Empoli	14	4	1	9	-10	-4.5	13
13	Carrarese	15	2	6	7	-11	-10.2	12
14	Reggiana	16	3	3	10	-13	-4.6	12
15	Avellino	14	2	5	7	-12	-7.8	11
16	Bari	15	2	5	8	-16	-9.2	11
17	Mantova	15	2	4	9	-10	-3.3	10
18	Sampdoria	15	1	5	9	-13	-3.9	8
19	Pescara	14	1	5	8	-16	-2.6	8
20	Virtus Entella	15	1	4	10	-18	-7.6	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.