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Championship

Referee: L Doughty

Stoke

U S T T U

3–1

Full-time

Watford

U S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,3

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

2,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 37/36 matches

Win Ø 36%

35%

36%

Points per game

1,3

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

43%

44%

Both score Ø 51%

41%

61%

Average goals

2,2

2,4

Scored

1,1

1,3

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,66 xG 1,83

45% Possession 55%

19 Shots 15

12 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 9

6 Corners 7

2 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 13

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 16. · Watford 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	38	23	8	7	+38	+30.3	77
2	Ipswich	36	18	11	7	+26	+24.2	65
3	Millwall	35	19	8	8	+10	+9.3	65
4	Middlesbrough	35	18	9	8	+15	+18.4	63
5	Wrexham	37	16	12	9	+10	-1.6	60
6	Hull	34	18	6	10	+9	-17.8	60
7	Southampton	35	15	11	9	+16	+15.4	56
8	Derby	37	15	9	13	+6	-0.2	54
9	Watford	36	13	13	10	+4	+7.6	52
10	Birmingham	37	14	10	13	+0	+15.3	52
11	Swansea	38	15	7	16	-2	-4.9	52
12	Bristol City	38	14	9	15	+0	-3.8	51
13	Sheffield United	37	15	4	18	+1	+11.6	49
14	Preston	37	12	13	12	-4	-16.8	49
15	Norwich	36	14	6	16	+4	-3.3	48
16	Stoke	37	13	9	15	+3	-8.4	48
17	Charlton	38	12	12	14	-9	-14.8	48
18	QPR	37	13	8	16	-13	-3.7	47
19	Leicester	37	11	11	15	-7	-16.6	44
20	Portsmouth	36	10	10	16	-11	-0.3	40
21	Oxford	38	9	12	17	-13	-9.9	39
22	Blackburn	37	10	9	18	-14	+4.3	39
23	West Brom	37	9	10	18	-18	+4.9	37
24	Sheffield Weds	37	1	9	27	-51	-39.4	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	19	14	3	2	+25	+21.0	45
2	Ipswich	19	12	6	1	+22	+23.7	42
3	Millwall	18	11	3	4	+8	+8.7	36
4	Swansea	19	10	5	4	+9	+0.2	35
5	Birmingham	18	9	7	2	+14	+19.0	34
6	Middlesbrough	18	9	6	3	+9	+9.6	33
7	Wrexham	20	9	6	5	+6	+7.7	33
8	Watford	18	9	5	4	+7	+6.6	32
9	Hull	17	9	3	5	+3	-7.2	30
10	Southampton	16	8	5	3	+12	+10.9	29
11	Charlton	18	8	4	6	+0	+0.3	28
12	Sheffield United	18	8	3	7	+8	+13.5	27
13	Derby	19	7	6	6	+1	+1.0	27
14	Preston	19	7	6	6	+0	-4.4	27
15	Stoke	18	7	5	6	+6	+1.5	26
16	QPR	18	8	2	8	-1	+6.0	26
17	Bristol City	19	7	4	8	+2	-0.1	25
18	Leicester	18	7	4	7	+0	-1.6	25
19	West Brom	18	6	7	5	-3	+10.1	25
20	Portsmouth	18	6	4	8	+0	+6.3	22
21	Norwich	18	7	1	10	-2	+2.3	22
22	Oxford	19	5	7	7	-7	-0.9	22
23	Blackburn	19	4	6	9	-7	+6.7	18
24	Sheffield Weds	19	0	5	14	-29	-17.8	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	19	9	5	5	+13	+9.4	32
2	Hull	17	9	3	5	+6	-10.6	30
3	Middlesbrough	17	9	3	5	+6	+8.9	30
4	Millwall	17	8	5	4	+2	+0.5	29
5	Derby	18	8	3	7	+5	-1.2	27
6	Southampton	19	7	6	6	+4	+4.5	27
7	Wrexham	17	7	6	4	+4	-9.3	27
8	Norwich	18	7	5	6	+6	-5.5	26
9	Bristol City	19	7	5	7	-2	-3.7	26
10	Ipswich	17	6	5	6	+4	+0.5	23
11	Stoke	19	6	4	9	-3	-9.9	22
12	Preston	18	5	7	6	-4	-12.4	22
13	Sheffield United	19	7	1	11	-7	-1.9	22
14	Blackburn	18	6	3	9	-7	-2.4	21
15	QPR	19	5	6	8	-12	-9.7	21
16	Watford	18	4	8	6	-3	+0.9	20
17	Charlton	20	4	8	8	-9	-15.1	20
18	Leicester	19	4	7	8	-7	-14.9	19
19	Portsmouth	18	4	6	8	-11	-6.7	18
20	Birmingham	19	5	3	11	-14	-3.7	18
21	Oxford	19	4	5	10	-6	-9.0	17
22	Swansea	19	5	2	12	-11	-5.1	17
23	West Brom	19	3	3	13	-15	-5.2	12
24	Sheffield Weds	18	1	4	13	-22	-21.7	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.