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Serie B

Referee: G Mucera

Padova

T T T T S

1–0

Full-time

Reggiana

T U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Padova Reggiana

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

0,5

0,7

Conceded

1,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 25%

26%

24%

Points per game

1,1

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

41%

50%

Both score Ø 55%

53%

56%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,38 xG 1,08

56% Possession 44%

10 Shots 12

2 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 2

0 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 19

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Padova 14. · Reggiana 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	35	22	9	4	+42	+32.6	75
2	Frosinone	35	20	12	3	+33	+10.4	72
3	Monza	35	21	9	5	+29	+16.5	72
4	Palermo	35	19	11	5	+29	+11.5	68
5	Catanzaro	35	14	14	7	+11	-0.0	56
6	Modena	35	14	10	11	+14	+6.7	52
7	Juve Stabia	35	11	16	8	+0	-0.4	49
8	Cesena	35	12	8	15	-10	+3.7	44
9	Carrarese	35	10	13	12	-1	-5.4	43
10	Avellino	35	11	10	14	-14	-15.1	43
11	Sudtirol	35	8	16	11	-6	-5.5	40
12	Mantova	35	11	7	17	-11	+1.0	40
13	Sampdoria	35	10	10	15	-13	-2.1	40
14	Padova	34	9	10	15	-12	-12.1	37
15	Empoli	34	8	12	14	-6	+3.5	36
16	Virtus Entella	34	8	11	15	-15	-9.7	35
17	Bari	35	8	10	17	-23	-21.5	34
18	Pescara	35	7	12	16	-14	-3.4	33
19	Spezia	35	8	9	18	-14	-0.5	33
20	Reggiana	34	8	9	17	-19	-10.3	33

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	17	15	0	2	+28	+18.5	45
2	Palermo	18	13	4	1	+25	+9.1	43
3	Monza	17	13	3	1	+21	+12.6	42
4	Frosinone	17	10	5	2	+19	+8.4	35
5	Juve Stabia	18	8	9	1	+11	+5.2	33
6	Catanzaro	17	8	8	1	+10	+2.5	32
7	Sampdoria	18	8	5	5	+1	+2.6	29
8	Modena	18	8	4	6	+10	+0.8	28
9	Carrarese	18	7	7	4	+9	+4.2	28
10	Virtus Entella	17	7	7	3	+7	-1.4	28
11	Mantova	18	8	3	7	-2	+5.5	27
12	Avellino	17	7	5	5	-2	-4.7	26
13	Cesena	17	6	5	6	+0	+5.4	23
14	Bari	18	6	5	7	-4	-8.9	23
15	Empoli	17	4	10	3	+6	+8.0	22
16	Sudtirol	17	5	6	6	+1	-2.3	21
17	Reggiana	17	5	6	6	-3	-4.7	21
18	Pescara	17	5	5	7	+2	-1.4	20
19	Spezia	18	5	5	8	-3	+4.0	20
20	Padova	17	4	7	6	-3	-5.2	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	18	10	7	1	+14	+2.0	37
2	Venezia	18	7	9	2	+14	+14.1	30
3	Monza	18	8	6	4	+8	+3.9	30
4	Palermo	17	6	7	4	+4	+2.4	25
5	Modena	17	6	6	5	+4	+5.9	24
6	Catanzaro	18	6	6	6	+1	-2.5	24
7	Cesena	18	6	3	9	-10	-1.6	21
8	Sudtirol	18	3	10	5	-7	-3.2	19
9	Padova	17	5	3	9	-9	-6.9	18
10	Avellino	18	4	5	9	-12	-10.4	17
11	Juve Stabia	17	3	7	7	-11	-5.6	16
12	Carrarese	17	3	6	8	-10	-9.5	15
13	Empoli	17	4	2	11	-12	-4.5	14
14	Mantova	17	3	4	10	-9	-4.5	13
15	Spezia	17	3	4	10	-11	-4.5	13
16	Pescara	18	2	7	9	-16	-2.0	13
17	Reggiana	17	3	3	11	-16	-5.7	12
18	Sampdoria	17	2	5	10	-14	-4.7	11
19	Bari	17	2	5	10	-19	-12.6	11
20	Virtus Entella	17	1	4	12	-22	-8.3	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.