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Bundesliga

Referee: W Altmann

LASK

S U T S S

1–1

Full-time

Sturm Graz

S S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

LASK Sturm Graz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

4,0

2,8

Scored

2,3

2,0

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 52%

50%

54%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

58%

46%

Both score Ø 52%

54%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,6

Conceded

1,4

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

3,53 xG 1,12

63% Possession 37%

29 Shots 4

5 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 19

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match LASK 3. · Sturm Graz 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sturm Graz	26	14	4	8	+12	+9.2	46
2	Salzburg	27	12	8	7	+17	+9.0	44
3	LASK	26	13	5	8	+4	+8.7	44
4	SK Rapid	27	11	8	8	+2	-2.2	41
5	Austria Vienna	27	12	4	11	-3	+0.7	40
6	Altach	27	9	10	8	+1	-5.9	37
7	Hartberg	27	8	12	7	+3	-9.6	36
8	Ried	27	10	6	11	-3	-1.6	36
9	Tirol	27	9	8	10	-7	+1.7	35
10	Grazer AK	27	7	9	11	-8	-0.4	30
11	Wolfsberger AC	27	7	8	12	-5	-12.9	29
12	BW Linz	27	6	4	17	-13	+3.1	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Altach	13	7	5	1	+7	+0.8	26
2	LASK	13	8	2	3	+6	+6.7	26
3	Tirol	14	6	4	4	+2	+3.2	22
4	Grazer AK	14	5	6	3	+2	+1.7	21
5	Ried	13	6	3	4	+1	+1.1	21
6	SK Rapid	13	6	2	5	+2	-2.4	20
7	Salzburg	13	5	3	5	+6	+4.3	18
8	Wolfsberger AC	14	4	6	4	+2	-3.6	18
9	Sturm Graz	13	5	3	5	-2	+2.6	18
10	Austria Vienna	14	5	3	6	-6	+0.8	18
11	Hartberg	14	4	5	5	+0	-2.9	17
12	BW Linz	13	5	1	7	+2	+5.0	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sturm Graz	13	9	1	3	+14	+6.7	28
2	Salzburg	14	7	5	2	+11	+4.7	26
3	Austria Vienna	13	7	1	5	+3	-0.1	22
4	SK Rapid	14	5	6	3	+0	+0.2	21
5	Hartberg	13	4	7	2	+3	-6.6	19
6	LASK	13	5	3	5	-2	+2.1	18
7	Ried	14	4	3	7	-4	-2.6	15
8	Tirol	13	3	4	6	-9	-1.4	13
9	Altach	14	2	5	7	-6	-6.7	11
10	Wolfsberger AC	13	3	2	8	-7	-9.4	11
11	Grazer AK	13	2	3	8	-10	-2.1	9
12	BW Linz	14	1	3	10	-15	-1.9	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.