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KNVB Beker

Referee: D Makkelie

AZ Alkmaar

T S T S U

5–1

Full-time

Nijmegen

S S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Nijmegen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

3,2

3,5

Scored

1,8

2,3

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — KNVB Beker · 4/5 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 90%

100%

80%

Both score Ø 78%

75%

80%

Average goals

4,0

3,6

Scored

3,3

2,4

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+2,5

+1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

41% Possession 59%

13 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 8

3 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 11

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 3. · Nijmegen 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Nijmegen	5	5	0	0	+6	-0.1	15
2	Telstar	5	4	0	1	+10	-0.6	12
3	AZ Alkmaar	4	4	0	0	+10	–	12
4	PSV Eindhoven	4	3	0	1	+8	–	9
5	Twente	4	3	0	1	+6	+2.4	9
6	De Treffers	4	3	0	1	+5	+0.1	9
7	Hoogeveen	4	3	0	1	+4	–	9
8	Heerenveen	4	3	0	1	+3	+0.9	9
9	Volendam	4	3	0	1	+3	-0.8	9
10	Hoek	4	3	0	1	+1	–	9
11	Hsc 21	4	3	0	1	-1	-2.7	9
12	Heracles	3	2	1	0	+6	–	7
13	Sportlust '46	4	2	1	1	+3	-0.0	7
14	SC Genemuiden	4	2	1	1	+0	–	7
15	Waalwijk	3	2	0	1	+8	+1.8	6
16	Sparta Rotterdam	3	2	0	1	+6	+1.1	6
17	Eemdijk	3	2	0	1	+4	–	6
18	Spakenburg	3	2	0	1	+3	-1.4	6
19	Halsteren	3	2	0	1	+2	–	6
20	Capelle	3	2	0	1	+1	–	6
21	Almere City	3	2	0	1	+1	–	6
22	Dovo	3	2	0	1	+1	–	6
23	ROHDA Raalte	3	2	0	1	+1	–	6
24	Gemert	3	2	0	1	+1	–	6
25	Excelsior Maassluis	3	2	0	1	+0	–	6
26	GVVV Veenendaal	3	2	0	1	+0	–	6
27	Sparta Nijkerk	3	2	0	1	+0	–	6
28	FC Lisse	3	2	0	1	-1	–	6
29	Roda	2	1	1	0	+4	–	4
30	Barendrecht	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
31	Den Bosch	3	1	1	1	-2	–	4
32	Willem II	2	1	0	1	+3	-0.2	3
33	Kozakken Boys	2	1	0	1	+3	–	3
34	Excelsior '31	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
35	Kloetinge	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
36	Hercules	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
37	Koninklijke HFC	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
38	Zwolle	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
39	ASWH	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
40	Utrecht	2	1	0	1	+1	-1.0	3
41	UDI '19	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
42	Roosendaal	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
43	DVS 33 Ermelo	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
44	Meerssen	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
45	't Zand	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
46	For Sittard	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
47	TEC	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
48	Noordwijk	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
49	HHC	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
50	FC OSS	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
51	Ajax	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
52	AFC Amsterdam	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
53	HZVV	2	1	0	1	-2	–	3
54	SVV Scheveningen	2	1	0	1	-2	–	3
55	URK	2	1	0	1	-2	–	3
56	ARC	2	1	0	1	-4	–	3
57	Groene Ster	2	0	2	0	+0	–	2
58	Go Ahead Eagles	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.6	2
59	Den Haag	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
60	Heino	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
61	De Foresters	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
62	Vitesse	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
63	VVOG	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
64	VV Scherpenzeel	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
65	Katwijk	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
66	Blauw Geel	2	0	1	1	-1	–	1
67	Cambuur	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
68	Feyenoord	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
69	FC Eindhoven	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
70	Poortugaal	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
71	Rijnsburgse Boys	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
72	Quick Boys	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
73	Huizen	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
74	UNA	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
75	Vvsb	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
76	Zwaluwen	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
77	Harkemase Boys	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
78	Westlandia	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
79	Ijsselmeervogels	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
80	Excelsior	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
81	Rijnvogels	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
82	De Graafschap	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
83	Aalsmeer	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
84	Mierlo-Hout	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
85	TOGB	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
86	MVV	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
87	ACV	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
88	Walcheren	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
89	ADO '20	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
90	Staphorst	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
91	SteDoCo	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
92	AWC	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
93	Juliana '31	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
94	RKAV Volendam	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
95	Groningen	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
96	NAC Breda	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
97	Sportclub 25	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
98	Helmond Sport	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
99	Hollandia	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
100	VVV Venlo	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
101	DVO	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
102	Olde Veste '54	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
103	FC Emmen	2	0	0	2	-4	–	0
104	GOES	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
105	Kampong	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
106	Dongen	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
107	Erp	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
108	Velocitas	1	0	0	1	-5	–	0
109	Dordrecht	1	0	0	1	-7	–	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	AZ Alkmaar	3	3	0	0	+8	–	9
2	Hoek	4	3	0	1	+1	–	9
3	PSV Eindhoven	2	2	0	0	+6	–	6
4	Hoogeveen	2	2	0	0	+6	–	6
5	De Treffers	3	2	0	1	+4	+0.1	6
6	Eemdijk	3	2	0	1	+4	–	6
7	Halsteren	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
8	Nijmegen	2	2	0	0	+2	–	6
9	ROHDA Raalte	3	2	0	1	+1	–	6
10	FC Lisse	3	2	0	1	-1	–	6
11	Hsc 21	3	2	0	1	-4	-2.7	6
12	Sportlust '46	3	1	1	1	+2	-0.0	4
13	Den Bosch	3	1	1	1	-2	–	4
14	Koninklijke HFC	1	1	0	0	+5	–	3
15	Willem II	2	1	0	1	+3	-0.2	3
16	Kozakken Boys	2	1	0	1	+3	–	3
17	Heracles	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
18	Kloetinge	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
19	Sparta Rotterdam	2	1	0	1	+2	+0.8	3
20	Hercules	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
21	GVVV Veenendaal	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
22	't Zand	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
23	Heerenveen	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.9	3
24	Volendam	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
25	SVV Scheveningen	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
26	Spakenburg	2	1	0	1	+1	-1.4	3
27	Waalwijk	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
28	TEC	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
29	Telstar	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.6	3
30	Dovo	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
31	SC Genemuiden	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
32	Capelle	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
33	Gemert	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
34	Sparta Nijkerk	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
35	Excelsior Maassluis	2	1	0	1	-4	–	3
36	Heino	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
37	Go Ahead Eagles	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
38	De Foresters	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
39	Roda	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
40	Groene Ster	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
41	Katwijk	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
42	Blauw Geel	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
43	VV Scherpenzeel	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
44	Feyenoord	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
45	For Sittard	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
46	Rijnsburgse Boys	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
47	Utrecht	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
48	Quick Boys	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
49	UNA	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
50	Vvsb	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
51	Zwaluwen	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
52	Harkemase Boys	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
53	Ijsselmeervogels	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
54	UDI '19	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
55	Meerssen	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
56	Roosendaal	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
57	Aalsmeer	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
58	Zwolle	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
59	Almere City	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
60	TOGB	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
61	AFC Amsterdam	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
62	Walcheren	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
63	ADO '20	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
64	Noordwijk	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
65	SteDoCo	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
66	FC OSS	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
67	HHC	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
68	AWC	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
69	Juliana '31	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
70	FC Emmen	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
71	NAC Breda	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
72	Helmond Sport	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
73	VVV Venlo	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
74	Olde Veste '54	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
75	HZVV	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
76	Erp	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Telstar	4	3	0	1	+9	–	9
2	Twente	4	3	0	1	+6	+2.4	9
3	Nijmegen	3	3	0	0	+4	-0.1	9
4	Almere City	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
5	Heerenveen	3	2	0	1	+1	–	6
6	Volendam	3	2	0	1	+1	-0.8	6
7	Heracles	2	1	1	0	+3	–	4
8	Barendrecht	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
9	SC Genemuiden	3	1	1	1	-1	–	4
10	Waalwijk	2	1	0	1	+7	+1.8	3
11	Sparta Rotterdam	1	1	0	0	+4	+0.2	3
12	Roda	1	1	0	0	+4	–	3
13	Excelsior Maassluis	1	1	0	0	+4	–	3
14	Zwolle	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
15	Hsc 21	1	1	0	0	+3	–	3
16	Excelsior '31	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
17	PSV Eindhoven	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
18	HZVV	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
19	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
20	UDI '19	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
21	Spakenburg	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
22	Noordwijk	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
23	Roosendaal	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
24	HHC	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
25	Utrecht	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
26	FC OSS	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
27	Meerssen	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
28	ASWH	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
29	Capelle	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
30	DVS 33 Ermelo	2	1	0	1	+1	–	3
31	AFC Amsterdam	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
32	De Treffers	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.0	3
33	Sparta Nijkerk	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
34	For Sittard	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
35	Sportlust '46	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
36	Gemert	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
37	Dovo	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
38	Ajax	2	1	0	1	-1	–	3
39	Hoogeveen	2	1	0	1	-2	–	3
40	URK	2	1	0	1	-2	–	3
41	GVVV Veenendaal	2	1	0	1	-2	–	3
42	ARC	2	1	0	1	-4	–	3
43	Den Haag	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
44	Groene Ster	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
45	VV Scherpenzeel	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
46	Vitesse	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
47	VVOG	1	0	1	0	+0	–	1
48	Go Ahead Eagles	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.6	1
49	Kloetinge	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
50	Cambuur	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
51	FC Eindhoven	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
52	Poortugaal	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
53	Katwijk	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
54	Huizen	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
55	Blauw Geel	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
56	TEC	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
57	Westlandia	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
58	Excelsior	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
59	Halsteren	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
60	FC Emmen	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
61	Rijnvogels	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
62	De Graafschap	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
63	Mierlo-Hout	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
64	MVV	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
65	't Zand	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
66	ACV	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
67	Staphorst	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
68	RKAV Volendam	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
69	Groningen	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
70	Sportclub 25	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
71	Hollandia	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
72	Koninklijke HFC	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
73	DVO	1	0	0	1	-3	–	0
74	SVV Scheveningen	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
75	GOES	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
76	Kampong	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
77	Dongen	1	0	0	1	-4	–	0
78	Velocitas	1	0	0	1	-5	–	0
79	Dordrecht	1	0	0	1	-7	–	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.