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Serie A

Referee: D Chiffi

Verona

S T T T T

0–1

Full-time

Milan

S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Verona Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 33%

56%

Points per game

0,6

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

59%

44%

Both score Ø 49%

50%

47%

Average goals

2,4

2,3

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,71 xG 0,85

47% Possession 53%

13 Shots 6

2 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 1

0 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 6

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Verona 19. · Milan 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	33	25	3	5	+49	+34.1	78
2	Napoli	33	20	6	7	+15	+10.0	66
3	Milan	32	18	9	5	+20	+17.2	63
4	Juventus	32	17	9	6	+26	+29.0	60
5	Como	33	16	10	7	+29	+22.9	58
6	Roma	33	18	4	11	+17	+7.1	58
7	Atalanta	33	14	12	7	+16	+14.4	54
8	Bologna	32	14	6	12	+5	+1.6	48
9	Lazio	33	12	11	10	+4	-4.3	47
10	Sassuolo	33	13	6	14	-3	-13.5	45
11	Udinese	33	12	7	14	-5	-10.7	43
12	Torino	33	11	7	15	-17	-7.5	40
13	Parma	33	9	12	12	-16	-18.9	39
14	Genoa	32	9	9	14	-7	-0.1	36
15	Fiorentina	32	8	11	13	-7	+5.5	35
16	Cagliari	33	8	9	16	-14	-16.1	33
17	Cremonese	33	6	10	17	-21	-19.3	28
18	Lecce	32	7	6	19	-24	-23.9	27
19	Verona	32	3	9	20	-32	-8.2	18
20	Pisa	32	2	12	18	-35	-19.4	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	17	13	2	2	+32	+24.3	41
2	Napoli	16	11	4	1	+11	-0.0	37
3	Roma	17	11	3	3	+17	+10.1	36
4	Juventus	16	9	6	1	+19	+19.1	33
5	Como	17	9	5	3	+19	+18.8	32
6	Atalanta	17	9	5	3	+11	+15.1	32
7	Milan	16	9	4	3	+6	+10.5	31
8	Lazio	16	7	5	4	+4	+0.6	26
9	Sassuolo	17	8	2	7	-2	-8.3	26
10	Torino	16	7	2	7	-3	-4.4	23
11	Genoa	17	6	4	7	-1	+3.2	22
12	Bologna	16	6	2	8	-2	+4.1	20
13	Udinese	17	5	5	7	-4	-2.2	20
14	Cagliari	16	5	4	7	-1	-5.4	19
15	Fiorentina	16	4	6	6	+0	+8.8	18
16	Lecce	16	4	4	8	-11	-5.8	16
17	Parma	16	3	6	7	-10	-9.2	15
18	Cremonese	16	2	7	7	-10	-3.7	13
19	Pisa	16	2	4	10	-12	-5.6	10
20	Verona	15	1	4	10	-12	-2.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	16	12	1	3	+17	+9.8	37
2	Milan	16	9	5	2	+14	+6.8	32
3	Napoli	17	9	2	6	+4	+10.0	29
4	Bologna	16	8	4	4	+7	-2.5	28
5	Juventus	16	8	3	5	+7	+9.9	27
6	Como	16	7	5	4	+10	+4.1	26
7	Parma	17	6	6	5	-6	-9.7	24
8	Udinese	16	7	2	7	-1	-8.6	23
9	Atalanta	16	5	7	4	+5	-0.7	22
10	Roma	16	7	1	8	+0	-3.1	22
11	Lazio	17	5	6	6	+0	-4.9	21
12	Sassuolo	16	5	4	7	-1	-5.1	19
13	Fiorentina	16	4	5	7	-7	-3.4	17
14	Torino	17	4	5	8	-14	-3.1	17
15	Cremonese	17	4	3	10	-11	-15.6	15
16	Genoa	15	3	5	7	-6	-3.4	14
17	Cagliari	17	3	5	9	-13	-10.7	14
18	Lecce	16	3	2	11	-13	-18.0	11
19	Verona	17	2	5	10	-20	-6.2	11
20	Pisa	16	0	8	8	-23	-13.8	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.