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Championship

Referee: R Madley

Watford

S T T S T

4–0

Full-time

Luton

S U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

100%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,5

2,5

Scored

1,7

1,8

Conceded

1,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,2

This season — Championship · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 37%

33%

40%

Points per game

1,3

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

53%

33%

Both score Ø 54%

60%

47%

Average goals

2,6

2,3

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,3

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

59% Possession 41%

13 Shots 9

8 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 1

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Watford 15. · Luton 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	QPR	16	9	3	4	+8	30
2	Blackburn	17	10	0	7	+4	30
3	Burnley	16	7	8	1	+14	29
4	Sheffield United	16	7	5	4	+10	26
5	Millwall	16	8	2	6	+3	26
6	Norwich	16	7	4	5	+5	25
7	Reading	16	8	1	7	-4	25
8	Luton	15	6	6	3	+6	24
9	Swansea	15	7	3	5	-2	24
10	Preston	17	5	7	5	-3	22
11	Rotherham	15	5	6	4	+1	21
12	Bristol City	17	6	3	8	-1	21
13	Sunderland	16	5	5	6	+1	20
14	Birmingham	16	5	5	6	+1	20
15	Watford	15	5	5	5	-1	20
16	Hull	16	6	2	8	-11	20
17	Stoke	16	5	4	7	-3	19
18	Blackpool	16	5	4	7	-4	19
19	Wigan	16	5	4	7	-7	19
20	Cardiff	15	5	3	7	-5	18
21	Middlesbrough	15	4	5	6	-1	17
22	West Brom	16	2	8	6	-2	14
23	Coventry	12	3	4	5	-3	13
24	Huddersfield	15	3	3	9	-6	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Blackburn	9	7	0	2	+9	21
2	Millwall	9	7	0	2	+9	21
3	Reading	9	6	1	2	+5	19
4	QPR	8	5	2	1	+7	17
5	Sheffield United	8	4	3	1	+9	15
6	Rotherham	9	4	3	2	+6	15
7	Norwich	8	4	2	2	+5	14
8	Burnley	7	3	4	0	+7	13
9	Bristol City	8	4	1	3	+4	13
10	Watford	7	4	1	2	+2	13
11	Middlesbrough	9	3	4	2	+1	13
12	Swansea	8	4	1	3	+0	13
13	Hull	8	4	0	4	-5	12
14	Cardiff	7	3	2	2	+1	11
15	Luton	8	2	4	2	+2	10
16	Sunderland	8	2	4	2	+1	10
17	Huddersfield	8	3	1	4	+1	10
18	Blackpool	8	3	1	4	+0	10
19	Birmingham	7	2	3	2	+2	9
20	Stoke	8	2	2	4	-4	8
21	West Brom	8	1	4	3	-1	7
22	Preston	8	1	4	3	-4	7
23	Wigan	8	1	3	4	-9	6
24	Coventry	3	1	0	2	-1	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	9	4	4	1	+7	16
2	Preston	9	4	3	2	+1	15
3	Luton	7	4	2	1	+4	14
4	Wigan	8	4	1	3	+2	13
5	QPR	8	4	1	3	+1	13
6	Stoke	8	3	2	3	+1	11
7	Sheffield United	8	3	2	3	+1	11
8	Norwich	8	3	2	3	+0	11
9	Birmingham	9	3	2	4	-1	11
10	Swansea	7	3	2	2	-2	11
11	Sunderland	8	3	1	4	+0	10
12	Coventry	9	2	4	3	-2	10
13	Blackpool	8	2	3	3	-4	9
14	Blackburn	8	3	0	5	-5	9
15	Bristol City	9	2	2	5	-5	8
16	Hull	8	2	2	4	-6	8
17	West Brom	8	1	4	3	-1	7
18	Watford	8	1	4	3	-3	7
19	Cardiff	8	2	1	5	-6	7
20	Rotherham	6	1	3	2	-5	6
21	Reading	7	2	0	5	-9	6
22	Millwall	7	1	2	4	-6	5
23	Middlesbrough	6	1	1	4	-2	4
24	Huddersfield	7	0	2	5	-7	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.