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Premier League

Referee: Mike Jones

Stoke

S U U T T

2–1

Full-time

Southampton

S U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,5

1,5

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

This season — Premier League · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,5

1,5

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

29% Possession 71%

17 Shots 21

6 Shots on target 3

10 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 6

1 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 16. · Southampton 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	6	5	1	0	+19	16
2	Man United	6	5	1	0	+15	16
3	Tottenham	7	4	2	1	+9	14
4	Chelsea	6	4	1	1	+7	13
5	Liverpool	6	3	2	1	+1	11
6	Watford	6	3	2	1	-1	11
7	Arsenal	6	3	1	2	+1	10
8	Burnley	6	2	3	1	+1	9
9	Newcastle	6	3	0	3	+1	9
10	Huddersfield	7	2	3	2	-2	9
11	Southampton	6	2	2	2	-1	8
12	West Brom	6	2	2	2	-2	8
13	Brighton	6	2	1	3	-2	7
14	Everton	6	2	1	3	-7	7
15	Swansea	6	1	2	3	-4	5
16	Stoke	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Leicester	6	1	1	4	-3	4
18	West Ham	6	1	1	4	-7	4
19	Bournemouth	6	1	0	5	-7	3
20	Crystal Palace	6	0	0	6	-13	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	3	3	0	0	+10	9
2	Arsenal	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	Man City	3	2	1	0	+10	7
4	Liverpool	3	2	1	0	+5	7
5	Newcastle	3	2	0	1	+2	6
6	Brighton	3	2	0	1	+1	6
7	Everton	3	2	0	1	-1	6
8	West Brom	3	1	2	0	+1	5
9	Huddersfield	4	1	2	1	-3	5
10	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+1	4
11	Burnley	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Southampton	4	1	1	2	-2	4
13	Stoke	3	1	1	1	-3	4
14	West Ham	2	1	0	1	+1	3
15	Leicester	3	1	0	2	+0	3
16	Bournemouth	3	1	0	2	-2	3
17	Tottenham	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Watford	3	0	2	1	-6	2
19	Swansea	3	0	0	3	-6	0
20	Crystal Palace	3	0	0	3	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	4	4	0	0	+10	12
2	Man City	3	3	0	0	+9	9
3	Chelsea	3	3	0	0	+6	9
4	Watford	3	3	0	0	+5	9
5	Man United	3	2	1	0	+5	7
6	Swansea	3	1	2	0	+2	5
7	Burnley	3	1	2	0	+1	5
8	Huddersfield	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	Southampton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Liverpool	3	1	1	1	-4	4
11	Newcastle	3	1	0	2	-1	3
12	West Brom	3	1	0	2	-3	3
13	Stoke	3	0	1	2	-2	1
14	Leicester	3	0	1	2	-3	1
15	Brighton	3	0	1	2	-3	1
16	Arsenal	3	0	1	2	-5	1
17	Everton	3	0	1	2	-6	1
18	West Ham	4	0	1	3	-8	1
19	Bournemouth	3	0	0	3	-5	0
20	Crystal Palace	3	0	0	3	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.